Ciclón Tropical GENE - Categoría 3 - (Este islas Fidji))

Menudo aspecto presentaba GENE durante esta mañana.................. Ahora adjuntaré una imagen. Primero, boletín de aviso y análisis extraído del JTWC:

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 31/0811 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [955HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 19.4S 171.2E
AT 310600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTH WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HRS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER
63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN
55 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 160 MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 110 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD PAST 6 HOURS WITH COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS
PERSISTING OVER LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST. STEERING STILL INFLUENCED
BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO ALLOW
POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN NEXT 18 HRS. CIMSS SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR OVER
SYSTEM AS WELL AS ALONG FORECAST TRACK. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD
CENTRE PATTERN WITHIN WHITE DT=5.0,MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5, THUS
T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS. THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FURTHER INTENSIFIES
THE CYCLONE AND GRADUALLY TURNS IT TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 18
HOURS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC NEAR 19.7S 170.3E MOV SW 3KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC NEAR 20.3S 169.9E MOV SSW 3KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC NEAR 21.0S 169.7E MOV S 5KT WITH 90KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC NEAR 21.9S 169.5E MOV S 5KT WITH 80KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.

Ojo a los datos que recoge el Wunderground para este ciclón... que proceden en origen a los datos del JTWC:

Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)   Storm type

-------------------------------------------------------------
18 GMT 01/27/08  15.3S 179.4W    40       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/28/08  15.3S 179.4W    40       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/28/08  17.3S 178.5E    50       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/28/08  17.8S 176.0E    50       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/29/08  18.5S 175.1E    50       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/29/08  18.6S 174.0E    60       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/30/08  18.7S 172.8E    70       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/30/08  19S 172.0E    100       Category 2
06 GMT 01/31/08  19.4S 171.1E    90       Category 1


Dato confirmado........ GENE ha sido un categoría 2 en la escala de Saffir Simpson:

  31/0230 UTC    19.2S  171.5E    T5.0/5.0             GENE  --  South Pacific Ocean

  CI        MWS         MWS         MSLP           MSLP          Saffir-Simpson   
   5         90 KTS    104 MPH    970 mb       954 mb        2  (84-96 KTS); 3  (97-113 KTS)

O lo que es lo mismo, un señor Ciclón, que veremos que efectos causa en Vanuatu y proximidades:

REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 170.9E.   
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (GENE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 310537Z 85 GHZ SSMI/S MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION, SPECIFICALLY IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH-
EAST QUADRANTS, WRAPPING INTO A BANDING EYE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON 80 TO 85-KNOT DVORAK ESTIMATES


Segun la prevision pasara por el Este de la isla de Nueva Caledonia e ira perdiendo algo de intensidad

CICLÓN TROPICAL SEVERO GENE

948mb y 100kt









 

GENE para. Ralentiza su movimiento, e incluso diría que ha vuelto ligeramente sobre sus propios pasos. Los 100kt de vientos sostenidos me parecen excesivos, puesto que el diametro de las paredes del ojo (que mantiene, lo que pasa que en el visible no se muestra) ha disminuido bastante. Además, la cizalladura ha subido hasta 20-30kt. Calculo que ahora mismo esté en torno a unos 90kt de vientos sostenidos, más o menos:

Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)   Storm type

-------------------------------------------------------------
18 GMT 01/27/08  15.3S 179.4W    40       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/28/08  15.3S 179.4W    40       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/28/08  17.3S 178.5E    50       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/28/08  17.8S 176.0E    50       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/29/08  18.5S 175.1E    50       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/29/08  18.6S 174.0E    60       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/30/08  18.7S 172.8E    70       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/30/08  19S 172.0E    100       Category 2
06 GMT 01/31/08  19.4S 171.1E    90       Category 1
18 GMT 01/31/08  19.8S 170.6E    115       Category 3
06 GMT 02/01/08  20.1S 170.7E    105       Category 2

ROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/0818 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [945HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 20.4S 170.8E
AT 010600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH ABOUT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
95 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35
MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55 MILES OF
CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS PERSIST OVER LLCC.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE
EXPECTED TO MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST UNDER DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHEAST
STEERING FLOW. CIMSS SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR OVER SYSTEM. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND CENTRE EMBEDDED IN B
SHADE YIELDING A DT=5.0, MET=5.5 AND PT=5.0, THUS
T5.0/5.5/D0.5/24HRS. CONSENSUS INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY
FURTHER BEFORE WEAKENING IT WHILST ON A SLOW POLEWARD TRACK.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC NEAR 21.1S 170.7E MOV SSW 5KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC NEAR 21.8S 170.6E MOV S 4KT WITH 95KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC NEAR 22.5S 170.6E MOV SSW 4KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC NEAR 23.6S 170.6E MOV SSW 5KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON SEVERE TC GENE WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 011430 UTC.

GENE continua perdiendo fuerza. Su centro se muestra desorganizado. La cizalladura sobre el sistema supera los 20kt, y siendo un Ciclón Tropical de tan solo 70kt (Huracán cat. 1), es lógico que dicha cizalladura interfiera en su organización. Además, se encuentra próximo a aguas "no-tropicales", con lo que será complicado saber si dicha pérdida de estructura se debe a que quiere comenzar una fase de extratropicalización. Algunos diagramas de fase concurren este hecho.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [970HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22
DECIMAL 0 SOUTH 170 DECIMAL 9 EAST AT 020600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.0 SOUTH 170.9 EAST AT 020600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH ABOUT 05 KNOTS.
CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE

AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.9S 170.8E AT 021800 UTC
AND NEAR 23.9S 171.0E AT 030600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 005

THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY UNDERGOING INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR HENCE
CLOUD BANDS FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK IS
BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE LLCC. COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMED
SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 12 HOURS. CIMSS INDICATES INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR OVER SYSTEM. OUTFLOW STILL GOOD SOUTH AND FAIR TO NORTH.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH INFLUENCED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON CENTRE EMBEDDED W YIELDING A DT=4.0, MET AND PAT
AGREE THUS T4.0/4.5/S0.0/6HRS. CONSENSUS TRACKS THE CYCLONE SOUTWARDS
WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING

Perdón por el inciso. Os importa si de vez en cuando hago enlace a vuestras imágenes para visualizarlas en otros foros extranjeros?  Son sobre meteorología y náutica, y me interesan los sistemas que afecten a Australia y Nueva Zelanda.

Perdón por el inciso. Os importa si de vez en cuando hago enlace a vuestras imágenes para visualizarlas en otros foros extranjeros?  Son sobre meteorología y náutica, y me interesan los sistemas que afecten a Australia y Nueva Zelanda.

Yo no tengo problema alguno............. En Cazatormentas también tienes amplio seguimiento a los ciclones tropicales

Por cierto que GENE sigue ahí... Parece que extratropical pero, en apariencia, no tanto...