Lanzada alerta por formación ciclónica sobre el disturbio 99E.

Irwin - Jova - El 3º en discordia.

99EINVEST.25kts-1008mb-113N-970W.100

JTWC

CitarTropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21
Issued at 08/0300Z

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 105 NM RADIUS OF 11.2N 95.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 080230Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 95.5W.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N
95.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 95.5W, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
ALSO DEPICTED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS INCLUDING
THE LATEST IMAGE, A 080033Z SSMIS PASS SHOWING FORMATIVE BANDING TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF A FAIRLY-DEFINED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18-23 KNOTS AND THE MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

Para el NHC , se mantiene al 70 %




No tendrá intenciones de irse al GOM ?   

GFS

Sube al 80 %

1. WELL-ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.






Ambiente muy favorable para un desarrollo , lento pero constante.

Pierde un poco de fuelle y baja al 70 %. Recordad que la pasada madrugada aumento hasta el 90%.

GFS lo desarrolla en el Golfo de Tehuantepec. 

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ
MEXICO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE ON
THURSDAY....AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

Convección generalizada y continua pero sin organización , por lo que el sistema está a punto de ser seguida oficialmente por el NHC.

Baja al 20%

 

99EINVEST.30kts-1005mb-145N-936W.

Código Rojo 60%

1. UPDATED...SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...WHICH MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



12E.TWELVE



Cuidado El Salvador , por que los acumulados por precipitaciones van a ser realmente importantes para toda la zona costera Pacífica.

CitarGFS lo desarrolla en el Golfo de Tehuantepec. 

Me ganaste el post Hardstyle xD...el sistema mejoro de golpe!! y mas lluvia para la costa de México....el pacífico anda enojado...


Ed: El nhc desarrolla al actual Depresión tropical como TT para mañana....así que posiblemente en  en unas horas más ya tengamos a Kenneth.

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 93.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

AND GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER LOSING DEFINITION BY 48 HOURS IN AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW THAT DEVELOPS FROM EASTERN MEXICO TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS AND LGEM.

Cita de: Hardstyle en Miércoles 12 Octubre 2011 11:20:45 AM
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 93.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

AND GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER LOSING DEFINITION BY 48 HOURS IN AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW THAT DEVELOPS FROM EASTERN MEXICO TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS AND LGEM.

Parece bastante factible que pase de cuenca y se desarrolle en el Caribe....o quizás en el GOM. La cuestión es....¿Será nombrado antes de que pegue el salto?

Destacar por el momento , las importantes cantidades de precipitación que se están registrando en el Sureste Mexicano , El salvador y Guatemala.
Algunas precipitaciones están superando los 450 mm en 48 horas. 

Hoy en San Jose (Guatemala) llevan contabilizados unos 310.0 mm.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...EVEN AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

Esto no llega al Caribe o al GOM vivo ni queriendo. Mucha convección pero su organización es pésima o inexistente.



CMC es el único que ve una Post-Regeneración en el Caribe..... Y de suceder esto, ya sería otro sistema y supongo que con otro Name.

Cita de: Hardstyle en Miércoles 12 Octubre 2011 19:11:01 PM
Esto no llega al Caribe o al GOM vivo ni queriendo. Mucha convección pero su organización es pésima o inexistente.

CMC es el único que ve una Post-Regeneración en el Caribe..... Y de suceder esto, ya sería otro sistema y supongo que con otro Name.

Recién salida la saliida del GFS de las 12Z ve regeneración en el Golfo de Honduras, sin mucha fuerza pero algo vé, lo peor (ahora estoy bajando los frames) es que al parecer la situación de lluvias intensas se puede prolongar sobre centroamerica mas de una semana. 

Saludos