[REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 162.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 162.6E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BULK OF CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. WHILE THERE IS LIMITED GLOBAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, THE INCREASE IN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS LEADS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH./quote]
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