Depresión Tropical 29-W (Sur Guam - Pacífico Oeste)

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Depresión Tropical 29-W (Sur Guam - Pacífico Oeste)
« en: Martes 15 Diciembre 2015 10:51:25 am »
Ya tenemos recambio para MELOR, con un nuevo sistema, que ha nacido precisamente, sobre la misma zona que lo hizo el tifón nombrado.
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REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4N
145.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 144.6E, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
141150Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD AND
CONSOLIDATE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA ALSO
INDICATES THE LLCC IS GETTING MORE DEFINED WITH 25 KNOT RAIN FLAGGED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
« Última modificación: Jueves 17 Diciembre 2015 01:35:43 am por Sudoku »
Sanlúcar de Barrameda (Cádiz)...En la desembocadura, a orillas del Guadalquivir y Bético, para lo bueno y lo malo

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Re:Depresión Tropical 29-W (Sur Guam - Pacífico Oeste)
« Respuesta #1 en: Jueves 17 Diciembre 2015 01:38:33 am »
Nueva Depresión Tropical en la cuenca más activa del planeta, aunque los modelos no le dan más de 35 kts. ::)
Primer parte del JTWC:
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2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
136 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 161250Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN
IMPROVED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION SHEARED JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST. A 161341Z RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WITH STRONGER 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE ABOVE
IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON T1.5
(25 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASSES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT
IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH IMPROVING DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TD 29W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 29W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS PRIOR TO TURNING SOUTH AS THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT MOVES
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA. MODERATELY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE INCREASED
VWS DUE TO THE COLD SURGE EVENT WEAKENS THE SYSTEM. TD 29W WILL MAKE
LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL MINDANAO JUST BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. LIMITED
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
Sanlúcar de Barrameda (Cádiz)...En la desembocadura, a orillas del Guadalquivir y Bético, para lo bueno y lo malo

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Re:Depresión Tropical 29-W (Sur Guam - Pacífico Oeste)
« Respuesta #2 en: Viernes 18 Diciembre 2015 12:54:05 pm »
Visto y no visto.



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