TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3S 85.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 725 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF CONSOLIDATION WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION. A RECENT 011425Z TRMM SUPPORTS THE EAST-WEST ELONGATION AND THE SHEARING OF CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS CREATING MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10 TO 20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE ELONGATION OF THE LLCC AND MODERATE VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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