El análisis de ESTOFEX para los próximos días:
CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Wed 14 Sep 06:00 - Thu 15 Sep 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 13 Sep 17:25 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GATZEN
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across east-central Mediterranean, southern Italy, southern Greece
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across southwestern Iberian Peninsula
SYNOPSIS
High over northern Atlantic ridges into central Europe ... and relatively zonal flow is present from British Isles to southern Scandinavia and northern Russia. Over the Balkans ... upper cut-off low intensifies while moving southeastward. At lower levels ... mostly stable maritime airmass advects eastward over northern and central Europe, while unstable airmass is expected in the range of a low over Balkans and central/eastern Mediterranean.
DISCUSSION
...Southwestern Iberian Peninsula ...Unstable airmass is present in the range of the trough axis over southern Iberian Peninsula region ... characterized by rich low-level moisture, weak CIN, and well-mixed layers aloft as indicated by latest Gibraltar sounding. On Wednesday ... instability is expected to increase as upper trough cuts off and intensifies SW of Iberian Peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms should develop in the range of the upper cut-off as low-level convergenze is expected north of a surface low-pressure system developing over Morocco. Thunderstroms that form should be well-organized given favorable vertical wind shear ... with low-level easterly winds and SWerly winds aloft ... and supercells are forecast ... capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. One or two tornadoes are not ruled out as LLS should be relatively strong. Convective acitivity should go on during the night hours as low-level convergence will remain.
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