Huracán ANDRES Categoría 4 (01-E. SO México - Pacífico Este)

Como comenta el compañero Sudoku en el seguimiento General, nuevo sistema a tener en cuenta en el pacífico Este, el primero con importancia de esta temporada 2015 que comenzó el pasado día 15 de Mayo.



1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form after mid-week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Código Naranja. Aumentan sus posibilidades hasta el 40%

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Pasch

Cuidado porque éste tiene prisa, demasiada diría yo a tenor de cómo van mejorando las imágenes del SAT.

1. Showers and thunderstorms in association with a broad area of
low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
coast of Mexico have become better organized.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system and a
tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days as
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Roberts/Brown

Si antes lo digo........
Lanzada la alerta por formación tropical por parte de la Marina. Código ROJO.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for development and this system is likely to
become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Brown/Roberts

Primera Depresión de este 2015 en el Pacífico Este

Relatively low shear and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures
should support intensification during the next 3 days or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 11.0N 110.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 11.7N 111.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 12.6N 112.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 13.4N 113.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 14.2N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  31/0600Z 16.0N 115.0W   80 KT 90 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg



Iremos vigilándola pues.

Bueno, pues ya tenemos a ANDRES, la primera Tormenta Tropical del EPAC en 2015. De momento ADT le otorga 43 kt-1002 mb y tiene bastante buen aspecto, con aguas de 30º C y cizalladura de entre 10 y 20 kts.

Buenas tardes.
ANDRES a punto de alcanzar la Categoría 1 con 60kts-994mb, aunque según las estimaciones de ADT ya lo ha conseguido con creces.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 985.5mb/ 72.2kt

...ANDRES STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...  

ANDRES a punto de alcanzar la Categoría 2 con 80 kts-978 mb y con algo de cizalladura que afecta a la parte occidental del sistema.

Ahí, como tiene que ser y rompiendo moldes. 01EANDRES.90kts-970mb-142N-1156W Y previsión de un máximo de 85 kts a tomar por saco.

Diría que el pico de Andres ya ha pasado, y a partir de ahora no hará otra cosa más que debilitarse.



Hay algo de cizalladura y aire seco en el camino.... y su movimiento hacia el ONO acarrera SST en descenso.... Poca vida le queda ya.

Pero que coj.....

110kts-952mb

Sorpresón!!!!



Y cuidado que ADT se va a 120 nudos..... atentos estaremos....