La diferencia con ADRÍAN radica en que esta pertubación está mucho más cerca de la costa, y con posibilidades de afectar a tierras mexicanas. De ahí, que la intensidad que marcan los modelos, sea menor

Y cuanto más se acerque en destino final, a Puerto Vallarta, menos fuerza

A ver que queda

 

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN

Sube al 50% y se concentran más, aunque sigue muy cercana a la costa.
1. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY AND
TOMORROW.

El CNH sigue señalando que las condiciones ambientales , tanto SST como cizalladura son favorables para el desarrollo del 92E.

Loop



Los modelos siguen marcando como mínimo una Tormenta Tropical una vez inicie su giro al W.

Código rojo (60%) para el desarrollo tropical en las próximas 48 horas.

A puntito de caramelo. A partir de esta noche hora española, podemos tener nueva depresión.
1. RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH.   INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

Menudo "boloncio" se ha formado en menos de 4 horas. El NHC le da ya el 90%, aunque visto lo visto, podría estar ya formada mientras escribo estas palabras.
EDITO: 25 Kt. 1006 mb. Lanzado el ATCF en la página de la Marina.

ATCF renumera , Cerca de tener a la DT02E  

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep922011_ep022011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201106191257
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END.

EDITO : tenemos a la DT02E .02ETWO.25kts-1006mb-130N-989W

El NHC actualiza 

..NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 99.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN
TELMO

Sras. y Sres. aquí el que no corre vuela. Tenemos ya a T.T. BEATRIZ y todo deprisa y corriendo
A pesar de que en la discursión da un pronóstico de fortalecimiento a HURACAN en la mañana del próximo Martes, visto el buen flujo de salida y las condiciones en que se encuentra en estos momentos, me atrevería a decir que será antes, en la tarde del Lunes.
WTPZ32 KNHC 191731
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 100.6W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN
TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST.
BEATRIZ IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY EARLY TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.67 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD AS MUCH AS 35 MILES...
55 KM...FROM THE CENTER.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.  HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Continuadas explosiones convectivas con unos topes verdaderamente fríos.

Loop



SMN

Sección D. Pronóstico de 48 a 96 horas

- "Beatriz se intensificará a huracán categoría I y se localizará  a 75 km al Sur Manzanillo, Col., su relativa cercanía a territorio mexicano generará amplia zona de fuerte actividad convectiva ocasionando nublados densos con potencial de lluvias intensas a torrenciales, tormentas e intervalos de chubascos en los estados del Occidente, Centro y Sur del País, sobre todo en Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima y Jalisco.

Ya va por los 50 kts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 15.7N 102.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  20/1800Z 16.6N 103.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  21/0600Z 17.6N 104.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  21/1800Z 18.7N 104.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  22/0600Z 19.4N 105.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  23/0600Z 20.2N 109.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  24/0600Z 20.2N 112.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  25/0600Z 20.2N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

El Maestro Stewart ha vuelto

El aspecto actual se encuentra bastante influenciado aún por su cercanía a la costa, a ver como es capaz de evolucionar en las próximas horas.