Huracán BUD Categoría 3 (02-E. Sur de México - Pacífico Este)

Viendo el bicho que desarrolla el Europeo...


...creo que es conveniente abrir el tópic, de momento el NHC le da un 40%.

25kts-1006mb


Veremos

El NHC Emite un aviso especial aumentándole a un 60% de probabilidades de convertirse en depresión tropical.


UPDATED...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500
MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... 

Se está organizando moderadamente rápido, pero la convección profunda aún se encuentra muy alejada del centro.



México tiene el primer gran problema de la temporada.

El NHC apuesta por un Huracán Categoría 2 dirección al SO de México.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z  9.4N 100.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z  9.7N 100.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 10.5N 101.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 11.6N 103.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 12.7N 104.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 15.0N 104.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 17.0N 104.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 19.0N 103.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

De momento lo que comenta Hardstyle, tiene que "enrollarse" entorno al centro.

El motivo principal por el cual tal previsiones dadas para Alberto, pero de momento se encuentra como ayer.

Indices de acumulación por calor oceánico en capas superficiales del océano por donde va a discurrir el paseíto de Alberto.

Nota importante para que nos acordemos bien todos.

Reajuste de la escala Saffir-Simpson

From:
 
Category 3: 111-130 mph (96-113 kt, 178-209 km/h)
Category 4: 131-155 mph (114-135 kt, 210-249 km/h)
Category 5: 156 mph or higher (136 kt or higher, 250 km/h or
            higher)
 
To:
 
Category 3: 111-129 mph (96-112 kt, 178-208 km/h)
Category 4: 130-156 mph (113-136 kt, 209-251 km/h)
Category 5: 157 mph or higher (137 kt or higher, 252 km/h or
            higher)

Con 113 KT Categoría 4 en vez los 114 KT
Con 137 KT Categoría 5 en vez los 136 KT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20120301_pis_sshws.php

---

 

Se aglutina poco a poco la convección profunda entorno al centro, por lo demás... sin cambios significativos.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov

Tenemos la segunda tormenta tropical de la temporada en el Eastern Pacific.


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220841
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 AM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN MASS OF CONVECTION DUE
TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE ASCAT DATA SHOWED 30 TO 35 KT
WINDS IN A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON
THIS DATA THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM...
THE SECOND OF THE 2012 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT
TERM WHICH SHOULD KEEP BUD FROM STRENGTHENING QUICKLY TODAY.  BY
TONIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF BUD.  NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
BRINGS BUD TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... INCREASING
SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
INDUCE SOME WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...BUT THE NHC FORECAST
SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT 96 AND 120
HOURS.

CENTER FIXES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF ASCAT PASSES DURING THE PAST
12-18 HOURS SHOWS THAT BUD IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...295/10 KT.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  BUD IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DEEPENS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE
TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND BECOMES QUITE LARGE.  THERE ARE
BASICALLY TWO CAMPS OF MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE...THOSE THAT SHOW A
DEEPER TROUGH WHICH CAUSES BUD TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
MEXICO...AND A SECOND GROUP THAT TURNS BUD NORTHEASTWARD...BUT
SHOWS THE CYCLONE DECELERATING AS IT NEARS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF BUD...THIS IS THE EARLIEST DATE ON RECORD
FOR THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN THE EAST PACIFIC. IT
SURPASSES THE PREVIOUS EARLIEST DATE OF MAY 29.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 10.4N 103.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 11.3N 104.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 12.4N 105.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 13.3N 106.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 14.3N 106.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 16.3N 105.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 17.5N 104.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 18.0N 104.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

¡Ahí va, qué buen aspecto!
Comienza a carburar y a desarrollar bandas hacia el WNW. Como ha puesto Sagrajeño, el NHC prevee que sea Huracán en unas 40 horas, pero visto lo visto, puede que se adelante.

Cambio drástico en su trayectoria, no llegará a penetrar en México y virará  justo en sus costas, rumbo sur como Tormenta Tropical. !!Ojo¡¡ que este nuevo Track, puede ser incluso mucho más perjudicial, pues estará estancado 24 horas frente a las costas mexicanas.



 

Cizalladura afectando a Bud.


APPROXIMATELY 10-15 KT OF DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO
AFFECT BUD