Huracán CARLOS Categoría 2 (Pacífico Este)

Y tanto que tiene posibilidades. Como que acaba de nacer la Tormenta Tropical CARLOS en estos momentos, justo al tercer aviso del NHC:
 
Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory
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000
WTPZ34 KNHC 102034
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009

...DEPRESSION REACHES STORM STRENGTH...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST OR ABOUT 910
MILES...1465 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A
MOTION TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND CARLOS IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.3N 113.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 
 Y "ojito" que parece que tiene prisa en desarrollarse. No me extrañaría nada que llegase a la categoría UNO mañana Sábado.
Saludos.
 

 Y "ojito" que parece que tiene prisa en desarrollarse. No me extrañaría nada que llegase a la categoría UNO mañana Sábado.
Saludos.

Destaco esto de la discusión que hace el NHC... "pequeño pero bien organizado..."

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

CARLOS IS WELL ORGANIZED AND RELATIVELY SMALL...OVER VERY WARM
WATERS AND IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  CONSEQUENTLY IT IS A DECENT
CANDIDATE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH THIS DOESN'T OCCUR
OFTEN IN MINIMAL TROPICAL STORMS.  THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE ESTIMATES
A 35% CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS OF
THE TIGHTLY PACKED DSHP/LGEM/HWFI/GHMI ENSEMBLE.  TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...CARLOS SHOULD BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATERS...WHICH MIGHT ACT TO SLOW THE STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/2100Z 10.3N 113.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 10.4N 115.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 10.8N 117.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 11.1N 120.1W    50 KT
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 11.4N 122.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     13/1800Z 12.0N 127.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     14/1800Z 12.5N 131.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     15/1800Z 13.0N 136.0W    80 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

NNNN



animación

Buenos Días.

...CARLOS STILL STRENGTHENING...


- Llegando a los 50kts, presión bajando a los 997-994 mbs.

00 UTC Best Track

Hora= 06:00 UTC.
Posición=Latitud,10.4N - Longitud,115.7W.
Presión=997 mbs.
Sistema=Tormenta Tropical.

EP, 04, 2009071106,   , BEST,   0, 104N, 1157W,  50,  997, TS,

- Pronóstico nº5 del NHC...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/0900Z 10.5N 116.3W    55 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 10.6N 118.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 10.9N 120.4W    70 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 11.1N 122.9W    75 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 11.4N 125.4W    80 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 12.0N 130.4W    85 KT
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 12.5N 135.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     16/0600Z 13.5N 140.5W    80 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

NNNN




 

55 nudos....ya queda menos

Time             Lat   Lon   Wind(mph)  Pressure  Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
09 GMT 07/10/09  10.0N 111.5W     30       1007     Tropical Depression
15 GMT 07/10/09  10.4N 112.8W     35       1007     Tropical Depression
21 GMT 07/10/09  10.3N 113.9W     40       1005     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 07/11/09  10.5N 115.1W     50       1000     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 07/11/09  10.5N 116.3W     65        994     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 07/11/09  10.4N 116.6W     65        994     Tropical Storm



un saludo

Saludos.

Carlos parece que se organiza todavía mejor, topes nubosos fríos, buena convección... con inmejorables condiciones que lo llevarán tarde hoy ó mañana a ser Huracan catI. De hecho parece que quiere formar ojo, pero en ningún canal es distinguible por el momento...

Bueno a seguir atentos.... se me adelantó Pepe....

- Parte de las 15:00 UTC del NHC...

...CARLOS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR ON SUNDAY...

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.6 WEST OR ABOUT 970 MILES...1560 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A MOTION
JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR ON
SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.4N 116.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB

- Además:

SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
SYMMETRIC SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF A 55-KT INITIAL INTENSITY. IN
FACT...THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE OF THE DAY...JUST RECEIVED...SHOWS
THAT AN EYEWALL COULD BE FORMING. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/1500Z 10.4N 116.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 10.4N 118.4W    65 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 10.5N 120.8W    70 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 10.7N 123.3W    75 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 11.0N 126.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 11.5N 131.0W    85 KT
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 12.0N 136.0W    85 KT
120HR VT     16/1200Z 13.0N 141.0W    80 KT





 

Ufff.....a puntito de formar el OJO.
Las explosiones convectivas se suceden alrededor del hipotético LLCC y en infrarrojo se observan buenos topes. A punto de caramelo, vamos.
Saludos.

Buenas Tardes.

Pues para mi que Carlos es huracán a esta hora. 

BEST TRACK

EP, 04, 2009071118,   , BEST,   0, 105N, 1172W,  65,  987, HU,

A ver, a ver... sigo ahora.

 

Pues sí.

En la página del CIMSS así aparece y más aún con ADT en la mano...

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 987.0mb/ 65.0kt

- En el visible parece intuirse la formación del eyewall, además de a 85Ghz.







 

Pd: animación MIMIC...

 

pues ya le tenemos aqui.
a ver si actualiza el NHC.
987.0 mb y 65 nudos.

parece ser que el martes podría intensificarse a categoria 2...aunque yo creo que será el lunes...
un saludo

HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009

...CARLOS BECOMES THE SECOND EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE OF THE
SEASON...


- NHC actualiza...

...eyewall visible intermitentemente en el visible, huracán con 70kt... buenas condiciones en cuanto a cizalladura y SST en los próximos 3 días, con lo que su fortalecimiento es seguro (algunos modelos lo ven como Major cat 4)... a partir de entonces algo de cizalladura y debilitamiento...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION..
LOCATION...10.5N 117.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB


HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009

SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES EARLIER TODAY GAVE US THE INDICATION THAT
AN EYEWALL WAS FORMING AND FINALLY A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME
APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGES. THIS EYE IS BEING WRAPPED BY TWO
COIL-SHAPED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND HAS BEEN VISIBLE INTERMITTENTLY.
HOWEVER...THE STRUCTURE IN INFRARED IMAGES IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS TIME. BOTH TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE AND THE 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE ADT NUMBER IS 4.0. SINCE
THEN...THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. GIVEN THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATES...CARLOS IS BEING UPGRADED TO
A 70-KNOT HURRICANE.

THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS AND THE OCEAN IS WARM IN THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG THE
PATH OF CARLOS. THEREFORE...A CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...BEYOND 3 DAYS CARLOS WILL BEGIN APPROACHING
HIGH-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A MID-OCEANIC
TROUGH...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
COULD THEN BEGIN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH
SHOWS WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CARLOS HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY WESTWARD PATH ABOUT 270 DEGREES
AT 10 KNOTS TODAY. THE STEERING FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND IS NOT EXCEPTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
THEREFORE...CARLOS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST RUN WITH MOST OF THE MODELS KEEPING CARLOS
ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH FIVE DAYS...PERHAPS
VARYING IN FORWARD SPEED BUT NOT BY MUCH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/2100Z 10.5N 117.7W    70 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 10.7N 119.3W    75 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 10.9N 121.7W    85 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 11.0N 124.0W    85 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 11.2N 126.5W    85 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 12.0N 131.0W    85 KT
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 12.5N 136.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     16/1800Z 13.5N 141.0W    70 KT



 

09 GMT 07/10/09  10.0N 111.5W     30       1007     Tropical Depression
15 GMT 07/10/09  10.4N 112.8W     35       1007     Tropical Depression
21 GMT 07/10/09  10.3N 113.9W     40       1005     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 07/11/09  10.5N 115.1W     50       1000     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 07/11/09  10.5N 116.3W     65        994     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 07/11/09  10.4N 116.6W     65        994     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 07/11/09  10.5N 117.7W     80        984     Category 1 Hurricane









 

Buenos Días.

BEST TRACK.

EP, 04, 2009071200,   , BEST,   0, 105N, 1184W,  75,  980, HU

Posición: 10.5N, 118.4W
Intensidad viento: 75Kt
Presión: 980mb

- ADT:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 986.4mb/ 72.2kt


- NHC aviso y discusión nº8:

...atentos al "pinhole" (efecto estadio) que ha estado mostrando intermitentemente y a la posibilidad de que se convierta en Categoría 3en apenas 24 horas (segun el SHIPS) en base a las buenas condiciones reinantes, aunque en las animaciones que veo parece algo debilitado...

...CARLOS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.5N 119.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB


HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CARLOS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN
THIS EVENING.  A SMALL EYE HAS BEEN SEEN INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS AND BRIEFLY BECAME QUITE DISTINCT JUST AFTER 0000 UTC.
HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME IT HAS BECOME OBSCURED ONCE AGAIN.  THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 WHICH
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT.

CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  CONSEQUENTLY...ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED.  THE SHIPS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING THE HURRICANE TO CATEGORY THREE STATUS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND THE RECENT
CONTINUED INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  AFTER 72
HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REACH SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER
AND APPROACH AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD
INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING.

CARLOS CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD PATH AT ABOUT 11 KT. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY PREDICTS A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE
PREDICTED FORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...IT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN
DEFERENCE TO THE FASTER GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      12/0300Z 10.5N 119.0W    75 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 10.6N 120.7W    90 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 10.8N 123.0W   100 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 11.0N 125.4W   105 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 11.3N 127.7W   105 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 12.0N 132.3W   100 KT
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 12.7N 137.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     17/0000Z 13.5N 142.0W    80 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN