Huracán Cat.4 KIRK (12-L. Cabo Verde - M.D.R - Islas Azores - Atlántico Norte)

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
early or middle part of this week while the system initially moves
westward and then northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Ya tenemos a KIRK dando vueltas por la MDR con 45kts-1001mb



Pico de 110kts

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 13.5N  34.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 13.6N  36.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 14.0N  38.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 14.7N  40.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 15.8N  41.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z 17.1N  43.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 18.4N  44.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 20.7N  46.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 23.5N  48.7W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Viendo las condiciones favorables.... éste no baja de un pico de 120-125kts.

Yo estaria al loro con el señor Kirk, podria llegar a la peninsula el finde del Pilar, creo que va a tener pasillo abierto por Azores, no seria la tipica ex que enfila hacia las islas britanicas...

KIRK ya es Huracán 75kts-980mb



Pico de 110 kts

Favorable environmental conditions are forecast to continue for the
next 60 to 72 hours as Kirk travels over warm sea-surface
temperatures and within a relatively moist environment with weak
deep-layer vertical wind shear.

Pues acaba de poner la tercera y ya es categoría 3, RI en las últimas horas.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Special Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
800 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

...KIRK RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 44.3W
ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

.... Y la discusión asociada al parte...

Hurricane Kirk Special Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 800 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 Kirk is undergoing rapid intensification this evening. Geostationary satellite imagery has shown an eye clearing and Dvorak estimates are rising as quickly as they are allowed. The initial intensity is set to a possibly conservative 105 kt, closest to the final-T number (T5.5) from TAFB. The intensity forecast has been increased between 12 through 48 h. No changes were made to the intensity forecast beyond 60 h, or the track and wind radii predictions. The next forecast will be released at the normally scheduled time (11 PM AST). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0000Z 19.3N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 19.9N 45.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 21.1N 46.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 22.4N 48.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 23.8N 49.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 35.1N 47.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 42.5N 38.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

Pico de 125KT.....

Saludos

Enviado desde mi 5028A mediante Tapatalk

KIRK ha pasado de tener:

5pm: 80kts
8pm: 105kts

25kts en 3h de Rapid Intensification.

También se trata del mayor situado más al Este del Oceáno Atlántico en un mes de Octubre, en 44.3W.

Actualmente tenemos 110kts-952mb, un incremento de 55kts en 20h.



Pico de 130kts en 24h

Given Kirk's recent rapid intensification, conditions appear
conducive for further strengthening during the next day or so.  The
short-term forecast is therefore above all of the guidance now,
peaking at 130 kt in 24 h.  By Friday, the vertical wind shear is
expected to increase and gradually weaken Kirk through the remainder
of the forecast period.

Llegar no llegará, pero la regada para la fachada atlántica, será bonita

O a lo mejor si llega... 



Mantiene intensidad aunque luce mejor aspecto. Mañana es el día para lograr el pico

Kirk is now a category 4 major hurricane
on Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

115kts-945mb

Pico de 125kts, los cuales diría que ya ha conseguido.

No descarto la Cat.5 durante las próximas 24hrs, pero viendo como ha ido fluctuando ultimamente, igual un ERC lo impide.

Pero 130-135kts si que los conseguirá. "ACE maker" en toda regla.

125kts-935mb



Dvorak está marcando 140kts; yo creo que 135kts si que le darán en el próximo parte.

Kirk continues to prosper.  The earlier eyewall replacement cycle
appears to have completed, and Kirk is back on a strengthening
trend.  Satellite images indicate that Kirk has a circular and
clear 15 n mi eye surrounded by a solid ring of intense deep
convection.  The latest satellite intensity estimates range from
115 to 135 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is
increased to 125 kt.

Decision salomónica 

Satellite intensity estimates peaked overnight, and there is
evidence of some restriction of Kirk's upper-level outflow to the
west of the hurricane in recent satellite images.

Parece que ha tocado techo. Tiene muy buen aspecto

Parece que ha tocado techo. Tiene muy buen aspecto

En efecto, disminuye algo la intensidad aunque aun mantiene cómodamente la Categoría 4...

Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

...KIRK WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY
SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 48.9W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1655 MI...2665 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

Saludos