Pues tenemos Depresión Tropical en el pacífico oeste, justo en la estela de Gil, con actualmente 25 nudos.



El pronóstico espera que llegue a 35 kts en los próximos días, pero no más, dado que:

THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS BUT THE
SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONSEQUENTLY
ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED.

Saludos

Puesya tenemos tormenta tropical, y el pronostico ha cambiado.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 12.9N 126.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  05/0000Z 12.9N 127.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  05/1200Z 12.9N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  06/0000Z 13.3N 130.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  06/1200Z 14.1N 131.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  07/1200Z 15.7N 135.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  08/1200Z 16.5N 139.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 17.2N 142.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Resumiendo:

NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
HENRIETTE TO AT LEAST GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  HENRIETTE SHOULD BE TO CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING COOLER WATERS IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

Tiene mucho mejor aspecto del que se esperaba. La convección está bastante bien organizada y como bien dicen en el parte, la cizalladura va a menos. Se profundizará considerablemente en las próximas horas si sigue así.

Gil ha pasado de ser una amenaza para este sistema a ser poco más que un aperitivo en este momento.



Saludos. 

En la última discursión indican, que la previsión inicial ha cambiado algo, debido a que el sistema se ha movido algo más hacia el Sur y que en estos momentos, es bastante difícil el ubicar su centro, por lo que aplicando dvorak se le da unos "conservadores" 40 kts. No obstante y a pesar de estar algo desacoplado, se mueve hacia una zona de baja cizalladura, lo que permitirá que en 48 h. alcance la Cat.1. Veremos a ver, porque en estos momentos está hecho "unos zorros".
EDITO: Según la Navy.........08EHENRIETTE.45kts-1002mb-120N-1273W.

No hay más echar un vistazo a las imágenes del SAT, para ver el importante repunte que HENRIETTE ha dado en las últimas horas y la discursión sobre el sistema, como para saber que ya ha comenzado su reintensificación.
08EHENRIETTE.50kts-1002mb-121N-1282W

CitarTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
800 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING.  A BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION NOW WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS
OF THE CIRCULATION AND BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT...A CONSENSUS
OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 270/4 KT.  THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING IN RESPONSE
TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEEPENING WELL WEST OF THE
COAST OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE HENRIETTE TO
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL
HEADING FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND NOW LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO LIFT OUT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN.  AS A
RESULT...HENRIETTE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AND STAY ON THAT GENERAL
HEADING DURING THE 3- TO 5-DAY TIME PERIOD.

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF HENRIETTE APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR
THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CYCLONE SHOULD DECREASE AS HENRIETTE
MOVES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. DURING THAT TIME...THE
CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WARM WATERS...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED.  IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO CROSS
A TONGUE OF COOLER WATERS...WHICH IS LIKELY TO HALT THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT
WHEN THE CYCLONE TURN WESTWARD IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...AND MOVES ALONG
THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM.  THE COOLER WATERS AND A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING...HOWEVER IF
HENRIETTE MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK IT COULD WEAKEN MUCH
FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.  CONVERSELY...IF HENRIETTE IS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST TRACK... THE RATE OF WEAKENING COULD BE SLOWER.

HENRIETTE a puntito de caramelo para ser clasificado como Huracán Cat.1 en las próximas horas. De momento alcanza ya los 60 Kts-995 Mb. y en la discursión sobre el sistema comentan que podría alcanzar un pico de 80 Kts.

Citar000
WTPZ33 KNHC 060231
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
800 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013

...HENRIETTE ALMOST A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 130.0W
ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.0 WEST.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

08EHENRIETTE.65kts-991mb-135N-1305W
Nueva pasada del SAT y en la imagen del microondas a 85 gHz, tenemos ya a la vista la consolidación de anillo. Buen flujo de salida y bandas convectivas rodeando su núcleo, por lo que elevan a HENRIETTE a huracán Cat.1-.

Mmmm, diría que tiene viento surante por arriba que va a hacer la puñeta al eyewall por los cuadrantes bajos... 

Pues va a ser que no

08EHENRIETTE.70kts-986mb-140N-1312W

CDO de HENRIETTE. Está creciendo, aunque si está claro que la parte del eyewall mas debil es la de cuadrantes inferiores




DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HENRIETTE SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARMER
WATERS AND IN A MOIST ATMOSPHERE

Sigue intensificándose y ya alcanza los 75 Kts. Por cierto, mirando el Visible...........¿pinhole?
EDITO: 80 Kts-981 Mb.. Va a toda pastilla. 

Mmmm, el eyewall sigue flojeando...

El último parte del NHC dice que tenia 12 horas para seguir creciendo con un pico de 85kt, es decir, Cat. 2..., pero me temo que está en decadencia 

ZASSSSS en toa la bocona...

08EHENRIETTE.85kts-980mb-172N-1379W

Baja de tamaño, sube de fuerza... Ya es Huracán Categoría 2




Parece que saca pinhole