Huracán Categoría 4 AMANDA (01-E. SO México - Pacífico Este)

Parece que carbura poco a poco el Pacífico Este.



1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase near an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system during the next few days while
it moves northwestward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Nunca dejará de sorprenderme la página del CIMSS, como este modelo experimental en donde combina la imagen en infrarrojo IR con la de vapor de agua WV. Ojo a este "sistemita" que se encuentra en una buena zona, con cizalladura alrededor de los 5 kts y buenas condiciones en Convergencia, Divergencia y Vorticidad. De momento 92EINVEST.25kts-1006mb-109N-1069W

Up!!!

1. Visible satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms are
becoming better organized near an area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves northwestward to west-northwestward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent



Podríamos estar hablando del inicio de la temporada en el Pacífico Este, sin lugar a dudas

Pos ale;

PRIMERA DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL DE LA TEMPORADA 2014 EN EL PACÍFICO ESTE



Pico de 55 nudos en 72 horas. Tiene buenas condiciones para desarrollarse, y parece que no afectará a tierra.

Ya comienza lo bueno, nos mantendremos atentos.....

Según la Navy 01EONE.30kts-1006mb-108N-1083W
Pero en la última actualización de ADT ya estaríamos viendo la primera Tormenta tropical de la temporada ó séase AMANDA. A la espera del parte del NHC
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1006.5mb/ 41.0kt

Y como suele suceder, cuando uno está posteando..........
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM AMANDA...

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 231445
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
800 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 108.4W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST.  AMANDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

¡Cuidadín con AMANDA, que mete el turbo! 
La última pasada del microondas ya deja entrever un incipiente OJO porque aunque el NHC le da 50 kt. en Dvorak se dispara a 59 kts., lo que es más plausible viendo las imágenes del "bicho". De momento y de forma oficial, 01EAMANDA.45kts-1002mb-111N-1089W
Veremos si no tenemos Cat. 1 por la tarde.

...AMANDA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 992.2mb/ 63.0kt

TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
200 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014

Amanda has continued to become better organized during the past 6
hours, with the system now showing a well-defined central dense
overcast and increasing outer convective banding.  Satellite
intensity estimates are 55 kt and 45 kt from SAB and TAFB.  In
addition, Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates from CIMSS are
near 60 kt, and a recent AMSU intensity estimate from CIRA was 76
kt. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt, and
this could be conservative.

The initial motion estimate is 295/04.  There is little change to
the track forecast or the track forecast reasoning.  Amanda is
moving slowly around the southwestern side of a weak mid-level ridge
centered over Mexico. This current slow motion is expected to
continue for the next 24 hours or so. A turn toward the northwest is
shown around 36-48 hours, with a slight northward acceleration
expected late in the period as the ridge restrengthens to the east
and a mid/upper-level trough approaches from the west.  The new
forecast track is similar to, but slightly faster than, the
previous track.

The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model shows a 50-70
percent chance of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours,
with Amanda expected to remain over warm water in a light vertical
wind shear environment.  The SHIPS, GFDL, HWRF, and Florida State
Superensemble models also call for rapid strengthening.  Based on
this, the intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification for
24-36 hours, and it is possible that Amanda could strengthen more
than currently forecast.  After 48 hours, a combination of
increasing shear caused by the approaching trough and decreasing sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause steady to
rapid weakening.  The new intensity forecast is a little stronger
than the previous forecast through 48 hours, and after that it shows
a faster weakening than the previous forecast.

Y pasó lo que tenía que pasar. Y ojo que sigue en RI y completamente desbocado. No me extrañaría nada que su pico de intensidad rondase los 100 ó 110 kts. en las próximas 24 horas.
...AMANDA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...
Primeros Visibles del dia. A ver si nos sacan una buena pasada a 85 gHz, para ver su "entrañas".

Primeros Visibles del dia. A ver si nos sacan una buena pasada a 85 gHz, para ver su "entrañas".

Edito: Sube a 70kt-987mb en consonancia con ADT.

Tal como comentábamos antes, sigue en proceso de RI y alcanza la cat. 2 S. S., pero en la discursión comentan que va a por la cat. 3 a toda pastilla. Las imágenes del SAT no dejan lugar a dudas. Estamos ante un gran "bicho", que para ser el primero de la temporada en su cuenca, no está pero que nada mal.

¡¡ZAS..........AMANDA ya es MAJOR!!
...AMANDA NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...
Dvorak es........................
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 963.3mb/102.0kt