Huracán CRISTINA Categoría 4 (03-E. Sur Manzanillo - Pacífico Este)

Siguiente bicharraco en la cuenca del Pacífico Este.



1. A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico.  Although shower and thunderstorm activity is
poorly organized at this time, slow development of this system is
possible during the next several days as the low
drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Le seguiremos muy de cerca. 



Saludos.

Va tan rápido como sus predecesores, con cizalladura de 10 kt. y bajando. Contenidos de SST y OHC por las nubes. Este año "EL NIÑO" va a hacer estragos en esta cuenca del EPAC.
De momento, 94EINVEST.25kts-1007mb-133N-1006W y nivel NARANJA.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, have
continued to increase and become a little better organized over the
past several hours.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development of this system during the next several
days as the low moves northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Pronosticador Stewart

Pasito a pasito.... tendremos el tercer sistema nombrado en esta cuenca. 



1. A low pressure system located about 150 miles south-southwest of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is showing signs of organization this morning.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and this system will likely become a tropical
depression during the next day or two while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Bueno bueno...



Esto es una Tormenta Tropical con todas las letras. De momento las chances del NHC suben al 90% tanto a corto como a medio plazo. Vamos, que ya está hecho esto.

Pues de momento se convierte oficialmente en Depresión Tropical, pero con el pronóstico de que se convierta en Huracán.



No afectará a tierra, por suerte.

03ECRISTINA.35kts-1004mb-155N-1022W.........Pues eso 

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 102.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.2 WEST. CRISTINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A CONTINUED WESTWARD
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND CRISTINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

De la discursión sobre el sistema podríamos destacar lo siguiente:

Cristina tiene un par de días para ganar fuerza adicional mientras los
factores ambientales sigan siendo generalmente favorables, y los modelos
están bastante de acuerdo en mostrar a Cristina con ó cerca de
fuerza de huracán en 36 a 48 horas. Más allá de unos pocos días, el sistema
se espera que pase a un ambiente más seco con cizalladura fuerte del SW
y temperaturas de superficie del mar menos cálidas. Estas condiciones
debe poner fin a la fase de consolidación y finalmente causar el debilitamiento
de CRISTINA.

De momento sube a 45 nudos. Muy buena organización la de este sistema, que a no mucho tardar debería ser catalogado como Huracán si continúa con esta progresión.



Dvorak marca un 3.9, por tanto, muy cerca de convertirse en Huracán

...CRISTINA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...

03ECRISTINA.65kts-990mb-152N-1041W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 979.6mb/ 77.0kt

A vista de satélite este bicho tiene que tener ya 75-80 nudos....



Aunque oficialmente se mantiene en 65 nudos.

Sí, sí,............85 nudos, según el NHC.  Pero es que según ADT nuestra amiga CRISTINA es un Categoría 3 como una casa, con más de 100 kt.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 960.1mb/102.0kt

100kts-963mb

Otro Major para el EPAC, y ya van 2 de 3.



The hurricane still has another day or so to gain additional
strength, since the vertical shear is expected to remain quite low
while Cristina lies over warm 29 C waters.  In 2 to 3 days, the
environment is expected to become less favorable as the cyclone
begins to move over cooler water and into westerly shear.

Esta tarde-noche será Categoría 4, estoy seguro de ello.