Huracán EMILIA Categoría 4 (05-E. Sur de México - Pacífico Este)

Nuevo área bajo investigación, como llevan comentando los compañeros en el Seguimiento Tropical, con chances de desarrollo.



1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Los modelos están de acuerdo en que de aquí ha de salir un huracán.

Mejorando poco a poco.



1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Va ganando en organización y como consecuencia pasa a Nivel Rojo (60%)

Un puntito más...


1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE INCREASED AND
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

Tenemos nueva Depresión Tropical a la vista.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH.

Según la Navy, ya tiene 35Kts-1003Mb por lo que EMILIA está al caer.
Saludos.

EDITO: Ya ha "caido".

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 080230
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012

...FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WATER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 103.2W
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E HAS
STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM EMILIA. AT 800 PM PDT...0300
UTC...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.2 WEST. EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK EMILIA WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY
FROM MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Emilia sube a 40 kts. Cizalladura baja y no se espera una variación en ese aspecto. En resumen.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
EMILIA TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...AND IT WOULD
NOT SURPRISE ME IF EMILIA BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THAT
TIME.

Hasta donde quiera.

UP 45Kts-1000Mb
In crescendo y con posibilidad de que sea Cat.3 entre el Martes y Miércoles próximo.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER STRENGTHENING.

Vamos, que apuestan por un fortalecimiento, pero no se la juega mucho, ''solo'' le dan un pico de 95 kts.

Presenta un aspecto un tanto tenebroso....



 

Supongo que no se la juegan por la descomunal acumulación de aire seco que tiene a la vista, el mismo que tarde o temprano, se cebará con Daniel.



También comentar que Daniel ha dejado un pelín más frías las aguas superficiales por donde tendrá que pasar Emilia, aunque no mucho.

Buen seguimiento Sudoku y Pepe. 

A ver si puede llegar o superar a Daniel, me da la sensación que se va a intensificar rápidamente en las próximas horas, la convección profunda comienza a rodear su centro.

A ver si puede llegar o superar a Daniel, me da la sensación que se va a intensificar rápidamente en las próximas horas, la convección profunda comienza a rodear su centro.

Salta a la vista con una muy buena circulación y toda la convección principal tapando su centro. Y va según el guión previsto, porque está a puntito de alcanzar la cat.1
05EEMILIA.60kts-995mb-114N-1078W

Uuufffff......incluso insinua OJO.
Pico de intensidad previsto de 105 kts. que se me antoja corto. Este va buscando la categoría "MAJOR" a toda pastilla. Y además con STEWART de guardia.