Huracán EUGENE Categoría 4 (05E-Pacífico Este)

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Este es el sistema que los modelos desarrollan en el EPAC , rápidamente aumento su porcentaje de desarrollo.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Este es el sistema que los modelos desarrollan en el EPAC , rápidamente aumento su porcentaje de desarrollo.

¿¿Eso??  Pero si parece ya una Tormenta Tropical.

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...

THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY DIAGNOSING ABOUT 15 KT OF
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION...WHICH LIKELY EXPLAINS THE
EXPOSED CENTER...AND THIS SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ALL
THAT MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS

El NHC tira por la vena optimista, planteando que llegue a huracán, con cizalladura no muy favorable. Veremos...

NACE "EUGENE"


...DEPRESSION REACHES TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 100.5W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
[MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES/b]

La combustión en torno a su LLC es evidente. Circulación y organización realmente rápida y bien conseguida por Eugene.



Si no cambian las cosas mañana si sigue de esta manera será ya un Huracán.

 

...EUGENE STRENGTHENING WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 103.2W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

Outflow expandiendose por todos los cuadrantes, CDO más que evidente (THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW APPEARS
COMPLETELY EMBEDDED BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST), eyewall en gestación...



La categoría de huracán está cerca

GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER.

El destino no está claro, puesto que según el NHC, los dinámicos llevan a la tormenta a la Baja California, mientras que el pronóstico oficial, la manda a oceano abierto

La cizalladura moderada no ha sido un impedimento para que EUGENE continúe intensificándose.

INIT  01/1500Z 12.3N 103.9W   55 KT  65 MPH

ELF...



Tic tac, tic tac...

Nuevo huracán en el EPAC

EP, 05, 2011080118,   , BEST,   0, 127N, 1047W,  65,  990, HU

A la espera de la oficialidad

05EEUGENE.65kts-990mb-127N-1047W

Último parte del NHC, sin cambios en EUGENE

THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
AND A PROMINENT CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE



EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KT...AS ANALYZED BY
UW-CIMSS...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS
MARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR MODEST
STRENGTHENING WHILE EUGENE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER.

Vamos, que su desarrollo (pico de 85kt por parte del NHC, es decir, Cat. 2), se sustenta en las aguas de 29ºC

A ver hasta donde llega