Huracán FABIO Categoría 2 (06-E - Sur de México - Pacífico Este)

Liebres y liebres por el EPAC, como se lleva comentando días atrás en el Seguimiento General, nuevo sistema con altas posibilidades de desarrollo.



1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



Yo creo que Fabio sale de aquí

Sube hasta el 80%. FABIO cada vez más cerca.

Cabe la posibilidad que no siga los pasos de Daniel y Emilia, y vire dirección a las costas del sur de la Baja California.



Sin cambios a resaltar, 80% y lanzada alerta por formación ciclónica.

 

Sube al 100% Me cuesta creer que la estructura y la organización que presenta, tengan tan solo para la Navy 25 kts. ¡Qué conservadores que están este año!

Según la página de la NOAA, tenemos la 6ª Depresión Tropical de la temporada por el EPAC, a la espera del comunicado del NHC, este es su aspecto actual.

FABIO a puntito de caramelo. 06ESIX.35kts-1002mb-136N-1069W

WoW 

Bienvenido FABIO 

TROPICAL STORM FABIO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM FABIO...EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 107.3W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...AND AN
1121 UTC SSMI PASS REVEALED THAT THE CYCLONE IS DEVELOPING A NEARLY
CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD RING UNDERNEATH THE LARGE CONVECTIVE CANOPY.
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THAT BASIS.

A LARGE AND PERSISTENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS STEERING FABIO ON A WESTWARD
COURSE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/8 KT. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT IN HALF DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COUPLE OF CUT-OFF LOWS DEVELOP ALONG THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST.
UNLIKE ITS PREDECESSORS DANIEL AND EMILIA...FABIO SHOULD GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY
DAY 5...INSTEAD OF MAINTAINING A WESTWARD TRACK. THE GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST EXHIBITS
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEVER APPEARS TO BECOME IDEAL FOR AN
INTENSE STORM...BUT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE. BASED ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...FABIO SHOULD REACH WATERS COLDER THAN 26C IN ABOUT 3
DAYS...AND BE OVER 22-23C WATER BY DAY 5...SO WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE LONGER-RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST. THE NEW OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 48
HOURS THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST UNDER THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 13.6N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 14.1N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 15.0N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 15.6N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 16.0N 112.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 19.0N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 21.5N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

This GOES-15 image from July 12, 2012 shows the remnants of former tropical storm Daniel heading toward Hawaii, followed by Hurricane Emilia to the east, and further east is Tropical Storm Fabio. Credit: NASA GOES Project.



www.nasa.gov

06EFABIO.35kts-1002mb-136N-1073W

12/1800 UTC   13.8N    107.6W       T3.0/3.0         FABIO

Se intensifica de manera significativa pues se encuentra en un área con unos niveles muy buenos en contenido de calor oceánico.



06EFABIO.45kts-1000mb-140N-1079W

Nuevo comunicado por parte del NHC, donde aumentan ligeramente el pico máximo de intensidad prevista en 70 KT y destacan que se convertirá en Huracán en las próximas e inmediatas horas (36-48 horas), por lo tanto... RI a la vista.

TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

FABIO CONSISTS OF AN ELONGATED SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPS
FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
COMPLETELY EMBEDDED BENEATH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION...THE BAND IS
LONG ENOUGH FOR TAFB AND SAB TO YIELD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0.
THE WINDS ARE THEREFORE RAISED TO 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE CYCLONE IS TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A MOTION OF
290/9 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING IS THE SAME AS EARLIER
TODAY...WITH FABIO EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
INTO A DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODEL
ENVELOPE IS GENERALLY BOUNDED BY THE ECMWF AND GFDL TO THE EAST AND
THE GFS AND HWRF FARTHER WEST BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT THE SPREAD
AMONG THE MODELS IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE IS
HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...
WHICH LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

FABIO APPEARS TO BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF SOME NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW THE SHEAR RELAXING MUCH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED
TO OCCUR...HOWEVER...AND FABIO COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS A
TIGHT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOWARD COLDER WATER IN ABOUT
3 DAYS...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO WEAKEN QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES AT
THE UPPER BOUND OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 14.2N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 14.9N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 15.6N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 16.1N 112.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 16.4N 113.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

 

Buenos dias.
FABIO se intensifica y alcanza ya los 55 Kts. Su track comienza a curvarse hacia su posible destino: Baja California. Pero según la discursión, la cizalladura moderada de componente NE está afectando al ciclón y continuará haciéndolo, hasta que en unas 48 horas, entre en aguas más frias. De ahí que su tope de intensidad no sobrepase los 70 Kts.