Huracán HILARY Categoría 4 (09E - México - Pacífico E)

Unanimidad de los modelos en el desarrollo del actual disturbio 96E.

Para más información , diríjanse al Seguimiento Tropical.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GFS Loop



Visible Loop



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Condiciones muy favorables para un desarrollo rápido y potente. Cizalladura alrededor de 5-10 KT y de momento , poco aire seco a la vista. Tal vez algo al Nw del sistema.

 

Sube al 50% Y el Sr. STEWART, de guardia.

EDITO: Lanzado el ATCF.

Su proximidad a tierra en estos momentos es el único inconveniente de un desarrollo rápido y contundente. Sin cambios a resaltar en el disturbio 96E.

Loop RGB



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov

Al parecer éste es el amigo que meten en mi zona....ya es código rojo y en poco tendremos ya a "Hilary"

Así es, tal como comentais, parece que mete "el turbo". Y ojo a lo que comentaba Torre en Seguimiento.
1. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Novena D.Tropical de la temporada en el EPAC.... A la espera de una actualización por parte del NHC.

91hw.96EINVEST.25kts-1008mb-134N-960W



 

Actualizado, aunque con un dia de retraso, porque ayer hubo momentos en que tenía mejor aspecto que hoy
Depresión Tropical nº NUEVE 30kts-1006mb.
En poco tiempo, Tormenta Tropical, según el parte del NHC:
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 210849
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
200 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 96.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WESTWARD TO
NEAR ACAPULCO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Y ojo no vaya a ser otro Major.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 13.4N  96.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 13.6N  97.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 14.1N  98.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 14.6N  99.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 15.1N 101.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 16.2N 104.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 17.5N 107.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 18.5N 111.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Ya tenemos a Hilary....

Tormenta Tropical Hilary

35 KT - 1005 MB

Y como bien comenta Pepe , huele a Major.... Me alegro de verte por aquí Pepe 

Loop RGB



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov

SATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...AND THE LATEST MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A
LARGE CURVED BAND EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CYCLONE AND A LESS-DEFINED BAND EXISTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT
ESTIMATES. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS NOW TROPICAL STORM HILARY.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
HILARY REMAINS IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS OF
28-29C. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR HILARY TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THIS
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS A
BLEND OF THE AGGRESSIVE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS AND THE LESS
ENTHUSIASTIC LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.

El retorno de "Celia".... Si no fuera por el Track.... 


 

Su LLC se cubre rápidamente de convección profunda con unos topes cada vez más fríos. Hilary va a saltar de Tormenta Tropical a Huracán en un plis plas.

Loop Visible "Centro de Hilary"



Radar Puerto Ángel (México)



 

Hilary crece un poco más.

09EHILARY.40kts-1003mb-139N-964W

HILARY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN.

HILARY IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN STEADILY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS REMAIN FAVORABLE.

Prevén que Hilary llegue a ser Major más o menos en unas 72 horas. Aunque yo sigo pensando que lo será mucho antes.

IN FACT...THE GFDL... HWRF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPER ENSEMBLE MODELS BRING HILARY TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THREE DAYS OR LESS.

En cuanto a su Track, destacar una trayectoria un poco más al NE. Por lo que se han activado alertas para ciertas zonas costeras de México.

Loop Visible



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov

 

"Hilary" a puntito de alcanzar el status de Huracán Cat.1 con 60Kts-991mb.