Huracán HILDA Categoría 4 (10-E. SE Islas Hawaii - Pacífico Este)

Sigue la fiesta en el Pacífico Este.



1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have not changed appreciably in organization
since yesterday.  Nevertheless, environmental conditions are
generally conducive for development, and this low is still likely to
become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent



 

De momento Depresión Tropical, pero con claras intenciones de ser algo mas.

Pues sí. Porque en estos momentos alcanza ya los 45 kts. y pese a su pequeño tamaño.............

Aumenta a 50kts-999mb y también su pico de intensidad que se acerca a la Categoría 2, con 80 kts. Ojo en Honolulu, no vaya a ser.........

Acaba de actualizar la Marina, no así el NHC. Viendo el Visible, no deja lugar a dudas. ¿De verdad "esto" tiene 60 kts.?

Hilda mete el turbo

90kts-975mb

Y verá tú de lo que va a ser capaz HILDA, a pesar de su pequeño tamaño, porque me hace gracia la discursión de los pronosticadores, sobre "ese pequeño OJO de alfiler". De momento la Marina no ha actualizado, pero sí lo ha hecho Honolulu y le suben a 103 kts. que pueden ser algo más viendo las últimas imágenes del SAT.

WTPA45 PHFO 081458
TCDCP5

HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP102015
500 AM HST SAT AUG 08 2015
 
THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE OF HILDA HAD BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO SYNOPTIC
TIME...WITH A RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NEARLY ENCIRCLING THE
CENTER AT TIMES. THIS LED TO DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PHFO/SAB/PGTW THAT RANGED BETWEEN 5.0/90 KT AND 5.5/102 KT.
THE ADDITIONAL WARMING OF THE EYE IN THE LAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE
IMAGES...AND COOLING EYE WALL TEMPERATURES...SUPPORTS INCREASING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY TO 100 KT...WHICH MAKES HILDA A
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE.
 
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY ACCOMPANIES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HILDA IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
CENTERED TO ITS NORTHEAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
280/13 KT. HILDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON DAYS 3 AND 4 WITH A FURTHER
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS HILDA REACHES AND THEN
ROUNDS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE...AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
A DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER LOW ALOFT NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A RELATIVELY WEAK HILDA
IS FORECAST TO MAKE A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM THAT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS...CLOSELY FOLLOWS A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE IN
THE EARLIER PERIODS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS IN THE
LATER PERIODS WHEN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BEGINS TO INCREASE
DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN MODEL INTENSITIES.
 
A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND THE
HURRICANE TRAVERSES SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER. AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS
HILDA WILL ENCOUNTER STEADILY INCREASING SHEAR AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WATER TEMPERATURES AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. ONCE HILDA
MOVES NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...IT/S CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
COMPROMISED AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING NORTH
OF HAWAII. SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES SHEAR VALUES NEAR 20 KT MONDAY
MORNING WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO OVER 50 KT BY EARLY THURSDAY...AND
FORECASTS DISSIPATION AT THAT TIME. THUS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO
COMMENCE THEREAFTER...AND RAPID WEAKENING ANTICIPATED IN THE LATTER
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS AND THE IVCN CONSENSUS...BUT IS LESS AGGRESSIVE
IN FORECAST WEAKENING THAN SHIPS GUIDANCE ON DAY 5.

Ahí está la respuesta a la controversia sobre "ese pequeño OJO de alfiler"
10E.HILDA.120kts-946mb-136N-1428W Categoría 4, pulverizando todas las previsiones, incluidas las más favorables. Honolulu debería de vigilar a este sistemita desde ya.

Finalmente se degradó en su camino hacia el Oeste y ya ha sido declarada Depresión Tropical, por suerte para los habitantes de Hawaii. Poca vida le queda.