Hurricane IGOR-130 kts-930mBAN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FROM UW-CIMSS RUN AT NHC INDICATES
THAT THERE IS A 42 PERCENT CHANCE OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND A 90 PERCENT CHANCE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
THE PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO END SOON...BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS BY SHOWING IGOR
REACHING THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH BEFORE THAT HAPPENS.
SOME WEAKENING IS THEN INDICATED AFTER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
OCCURS...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH STRONG HURRICANES LIKE
IGOR...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BUT ARE ALSO DIFFICULT
TO FORECAST[/color].Pues eso, 42% de que le afecte un ERC en las próximas 12 horas, y 90% en las próximas 24 horas.
AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH
DISAGREEMENT TO INDICATE A WESTWARD TURN IN THE FORECAST. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BUT THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT IGOR IS READY TO TURN. [/color]
THIS
SOLUTION ALSO GIVES CREDENCE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN ECMWF AND UKMET
MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0300Z 17.6N 47.8W 130 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 17.8N 49.5W 140 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 18.2N 51.3W 135 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 18.9N 53.0W 130 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 19.8N 54.6W 125 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 22.0N 57.5W 125 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 24.0N 60.0W 120 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 27.0N 63.0W 110 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG