Huracán ILEANA Categoría 1 (09.E - Pacífico Este)

Novena Depresión Tropical por el E.PAC de la temporada. Empezó muy activa pero después de unas cuantas semana vuelve a generar un más que significativo sistema tropical, y dado su aspecto actual, no creo mucho que tarden en Tormenta Tropical.

09ENINE.30kts-1006mb-149N-1065W



Rumbo norte 

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 280232
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
800 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 35 KT AND 45 KT FROM SAB/TAFB RESPECTIVELY
AT 0000 UTC...AND 40 KT IS CHOSEN AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.  THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE WITH LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
ILEANA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WATERS THAT HAVE BEEN UNTOUCHED BY ANY
RECENT CYCLONE ACTIVITY.  THUS STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...
AND THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...
CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE LGEM MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN
THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...BUT I WANTED TO KEEP SOME
CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION.  WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN IN
ABOUT 4 DAYS AS ILEANA MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS.

THE LATEST MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT 290/10 KT.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY
STEERING CURRENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CAUSING ILEANA TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
INITIALLY ON HOW ILEANA INTERACTS WITH THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND SHOWS A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CYCLONE BREAKING FREE
FROM THE ITCZ AND HEADING NORTHWESTWARD.  THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS
LESS REALISTIC...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
RIGHT IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS.  A LEFTWARD BEND SHOULD OCCUR IN
A FEW DAYS TIME AS ILEANA WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE AT THE LONGER RANGE...AND IS NOT TOO FAR FROM
TVCN.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 15.5N 107.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 16.0N 109.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 16.6N 110.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 17.3N 111.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 18.1N 112.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  31/0000Z 19.5N 114.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  01/0000Z 21.0N 115.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 22.5N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

ILIANA gana algo mas de fuerza:


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 281439
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 28 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP
CONVECTION IN A LARGE CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER.  THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. ILEANA WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM
WATERS AND WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING...AND ILEANA IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THAT PERIOD. AFTER
THAT...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS ILEANA MOVES OVER LOWER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

BASED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES...THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. ILEANA IS
LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE AND A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
STEER ILEANA ON A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO TO FOUR DAYS.
SINCE ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE CYCLONE IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 16.0N 109.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 16.5N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 17.5N 112.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 18.5N 114.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 19.0N 114.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  31/1200Z 20.5N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  01/1200Z 22.0N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  02/1200Z 23.0N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Adjunto la trayectoria prevista.

Ilena es un poco mas fuerte.

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 290237
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2012

ILEANA APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED A LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY...AND
CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS...ALTHOUGH BROKEN AND NOT VERY DEEP...EXIST
IN MOST QUADRANTS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC WERE 45 KT
AND 50 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE ADT VALUES FROM
UW-CIMSS WERE NEAR 50 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING
SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ILEANA REMAINS IN A
LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...IN A MOIST AIRMASS...AND OVER WARM
WATER. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...ILEANA IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE
IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATERS AND INTO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THESE MORE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE
THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY WEAKEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD WITH A FORWARD SPEED OF
ABOUT 9 KT. THIS HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD CALIFORNIA. A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN THE WEST IS EXPECTED BEYOND 3
DAYS AS ILEANA BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TRENDING TOWARD THE CONSENSUS AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 17.0N 111.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 17.8N 112.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 18.7N 113.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 19.6N 114.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 20.3N 115.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 21.5N 117.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 22.2N 120.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 22.5N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

ILEANA continua mejorando, ademas esta muy cerca  de ser huracan categoria 1. En el parte actual el nhc le da una fuerza de 60 kt es decir 70 mph.


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 291431
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
800 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND CONSISTS OF A ROUND AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OR
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST NEAR THE CENTER WITH SOME CURVED BANDS. AN
AVERAGE OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS SUGGESTS AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. BOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
FAVOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND ILEANA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
AT ANY TIME TODAY. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING
OVER LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL MODEL
LGEM.

ILEANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TOWARD AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP
ILEANA ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. DURING THE LAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BE A WEAK SHALLOW
SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
THE NHC FORECAST WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT NORTHWARD FOLLOWING THE
SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS.

AN AUTOMATIC STATION IN SOCORRO ISLAND OPERATED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY
INDICATES THAT THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAS
EXPANDED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 18.2N 112.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 19.0N 113.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 20.0N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 21.0N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 21.5N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 23.0N 118.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 23.5N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 24.0N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

09EILEANA.60kts-991mb-179N-1120W

29/1800 UTC   18.2N    112.7W       T4.0/4.0         ILEANA

...ILEANA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...



Cizalladura muy favorable para las próximas 36 horas más o menos, aire seco al norte del sistema típico  de esta cuenca, pero muy limitado por el bajo contenido de calor oceánico.

 

Según la Navy, ya tenemos nuevo Huracán en el EPAC.- 09EILEANA.65kts-987mb-188N-1129W. Habrá que esperar a la oficialidad del NHC.

Llega la oficialidad. A destacar que solo le dan un par de dias como mucho en su nuevo estado.
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 300248
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ILEANA ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
800 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2012

...ILEANA BECOMES A HURRICANE...BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A DAY OR
TWO...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 113.1W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ILEANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST. ILEANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ILEANA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BUT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Ileana es un poco mas fuerte


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 301445
TCDEP4

HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
800 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2012

THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF ILEANA HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE
OVERNIGHT...WITH A WARM SPOT OCCASIONALLY EVIDENT IN THE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST.  A 1043 UTC AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOWS A RAGGED
DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE OF THE INNER CORE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
4.0 FROM TAFB AND 4.5 FROM SAB...AND A BLEND OF THESE SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 70 KT.  THERE IS A SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TODAY.  AFTER
THAT...ILEANA WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND
INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BE WITHIN
24 HOURS AND ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3
DAYS.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 7 KT.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS ILEANA MOVES
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS
AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT SHOULD BEND MORE WESTWARD IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE GFS AND ECMWF
REMAIN AT ODDS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WHILE
THE ECMWF PREDICTS A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THE
CYCLONE.  THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...BUT
FAVORS THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOWN BY THE
EUROPEAN MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 20.2N 113.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 20.9N 114.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 21.7N 115.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 22.5N 116.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 23.3N 117.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 24.0N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/1200Z 24.5N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/1200Z 25.0N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

El GFS contradice al pronostico de Nhc y lo manda rumbo noreste y hacia costas de Baja California, pero ya muy degradado.

09EILEANA.70kts-983mb-203N-1139W



Con la gran afición que hay por la zona de Baja California por montarse en las olas, me imagino que las playas tienen que estar asediadas de Surfers. 

Tropical Depression 09E (Ileana) Warning #24 Final Warning
Issued at 02/1600Z