Huracán IRENE Categoría 3 (09L Sotavento-Puerto Rico-La Española-Bahamas-EE.UU)

...IRENE STRENGTHENS OVER PUERTO RICO...BECOMING THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC SEASON...



Stewart, no se anda por las ramas.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 220859
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

IRENE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
DESPITE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF PUERTO
RICO...AND A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN IMAGERY FROM THE FAA
TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. ALSO...LARGE PATCHES OF DOPPLER
VELOCITY VALUES AS HIGH AS 75-82 KT AT 1000-1500 FT AND 85-91 KT
AT 2000-3000 FT HAVE BEEN INDICATED NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER WATER FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS...WHICH EQUATES TO AT LEAST
65-KT SURFACE WINDS. SOME DOPPLER VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 72 KT HAVE
ALSO BEEN DETECTED AT 500-600 FT OVER WATER. AS A RESULT OF THESE
DATA...IRENE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS YIELDS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF ABOUT 290/10 KT. UPPER-AIR DATA
AT 00Z INDICATE 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE NOT CHANGED AT BERMUDA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF IRENE REMAINS QUITE STRONG. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEP
IRENE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION OFF THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND JUST SKIRTING THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND ON TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE SPECIFICS OF HOW LARGE A
BREAK OR WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDA
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT 72 HOUR AND BEYOND...WHICH WILL ALLOW
IRENE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND GFDN MODELS
ARE THE RIGHTMOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND KEEP IRENE
WELL EAST OF FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE UKMET AND THE GFDL MODELS ARE
THE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS AND TAKE IRENE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THE GFS AND THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
PACKED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND TAKE IRENE THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS AND JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS
THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW
OF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TO
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPS
AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT IRENE WILL NOT INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA AS MUCH
OR AS LONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IRENE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF
THE MODELS TO HAVE A VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...INCLUDING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ABOUT
1200 NMI EAST OF THE CYCLONE ACTING AS A MASS SINK. WITH IRENE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SSTS NEAR 30C AFTER 48 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS IRENE...IT
WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THIS CYCLONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT
SOME TIME DURING ITS LIFETIME LIKE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE
FORECASTING.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE
ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 18.4N  66.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 18.9N  68.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 19.7N  70.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 36H  23/1800Z 20.4N  72.4W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  24/0600Z 21.3N  74.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 24.0N  77.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 27.0N  79.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 30.9N  81.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Jodo...


Trayectoria rozando el Norte de La Hispaniola y atravesando Bahamas, pero me da que va a recurvar un poco antes

IT NOW APPEARS THAT IRENE WILL NOT INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA AS MUCH
OR AS LONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS

120H  27/0600Z 30.9N  81.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

Pico de 95kt tirando por el lado conservadore. Vamos, bichejo en ciernes

No has leído bien, Pepe... 

WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS
THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW
OF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TO
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPS
AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

No subestimes el poder de la dorsal.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT IRENE WILL NOT INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA AS MUCH
OR AS LONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS

120H  27/0600Z 30.9N  81.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

Pico de 95kt tirando por el lado conservadore. Vamos, bichejo en ciernes

De hecho, en el radar de PR, el core aparece visible y claramente más al norte del track planteado, por lo que dudo que la interacción con Hispaniola se dé, como plantea el NHC.






Peligroso, ciertamente... y con SST de 30ºC.

Bufff......Sí que es peligrosa esa trayectoria tan tangencial. Bordeando todas las costas hasta el NE de Florida como una cizalla, sí que puede hacer mucho daño.

Edito: ¡Ojo, último reporter!  
000
WTNT64 KNHC 220958
TCUAT4

HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
550 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

CORRECTED TIME IN DATE/STIME HEADER

PRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWERLINE
DAMAGE HAS OCCURRED ON PUERTO RICO...AND MORE THAN 800 THOUSAND
HOMES ARE WITHOUT POWER ON THE ISLAND.

ALSO...FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATES WINDS TO NEAR MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE NOW OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Moviéndose al Oeste.

ALSO...FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATES WINDS TO NEAR MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE NOW OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

Por lo que leo es por el efecto multiplicador debido a la altitud.

Una boya a 40km de la costa norte de Puerto Rico, está reportando vientos sostenidos de 111km/h.

Datos, Buoykirh:

Temperatura:   26 °C
Punto de rocío:   26 °C
Humedad:   100%
Viento:   NE at 111km/h
Presión:   998hPa


La velocidad de desplazamiento del huracán, parece estar disminuyendo algo.

Definitivamente el sistema está fortaleciéndose, la convección es homogénea... Y la trayectoria bastante preocupante.  

Estos son mas que 65 kts, así a ojo de buen cubero debe de estar cerca de la Cat.2, si es que no la ha alcanzado.

Una boya a 40km de la costa norte de Puerto Rico, está reportando vientos sostenidos de 111km/h.

Tú verás, con este aspecto



Primer bicharraco de la temporada atántica en ciernes.

Buenas. Interesante seguimiento.

Para darle mas leña al tema, os pongo link de webcams en directo de Republica Dominicana.

Zona Cabarete (Puerto Plata)
http://www.cabaretekitebeachwebcam.com/
http://200.88.120.150/main_activex.cgi
Se actualizan cada 5 o 3 seg respectivamente.

Zona Punta Cana (Hotel The Royal Suites by Palladium)
http://200.88.121.4:1090/cgi-bin/viewer/video.jpg
No se cada cuando se actualiza.

Costa E-SE a pocos quilometros del aeropuerto de Punta Cana.
http://www.punta-cana.us/Webcam/page_1923781.html
Se actualiza cada 20seg, aunque se puede actualizar cuando quieras con F5.
Muy buena calidad de imagen, pero lastima que el huracan pasara mas al norte por la costa NE.


Saludos

Muy buen aspecto, la verdad, mejorando su flujo de salida, wrapping el centro y un buen CDO.