Huracán KIRK Categoría 2 (11-L. Cabo Verde - Atlántico Medio)

UP30%
LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ESTA ASOCIADA CON UNA ONDA
TROPICAL LOCALIZADA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE.
ALGUN DESARROLLO DE ESTA ONDA ES POSIBLE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A
MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA HACIA EL OESTE U OESTE NOROESTE COMO A 15 MPH.
ESTE SISTEMA TIENE UNA PROBABILIDAD MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO...DE
CONVERTIRSE EN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

Continua sin cambios.


2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

UP 50%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC...LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY
CUBA.

1. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE WEAK REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION JOYCE...LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
THE SYSTEM TO REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN

Pierde fuerza, tiene unicamente un 30 % de posibilidades de desarrollo.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE BY LATER TODAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY. THIS LOW HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Centro totalmente expuesto, los modelos lo eliminan del mapa por una cizalladura de componente sur, realmente elevada (+30).

97LINVEST.25kts-1011mb-206N-415W

20120827   1200    20.5    40.5     Too Weak       97L  97L   



También mucho aire seco, pero bonita imagen del canal visible. 

Creo que ha mejorado algo en cuanto a convección peor no se ve que vaya a mejorar en cuanto al aspecto:

Tiene "algo" de aire seco al W...

Mejora ligeramente sus posibilidades de desarrollo hasta un 40 %, ademas destaco en negrita lo mas interesante.


1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 1250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS A
LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Adjunto la trayectoria prevista.

Aunque ya lo he comentado por "privado" con el compañero Sagrajeño ojo a "este", que va ascendiendo contra viento y marea. Y si persiste en su empeño, podemos tener a un segundo "GORDON" en escena, camino de las Azores. A ver como sigue en 24-48 horas.

Atento a este sistema continua mejorando un poco.



1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED
ABOUT 1425 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY
OR TONIGHT... BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH.

Comentando esto con Sagrajeño y va la Navy y se lanza
Tenemos nueva depresión tropical en el Atlántico. 11LELEVEN_30Kts-1011Mb.
EDITO: El floater del NHC también actualiza.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
500 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2012

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...NO
THREAT TO LAND...