Huracán LANE Categoría 1 (12E EPAC - SW Baja California)

Lanzada la alerta de formación tropical sobre el disturbio 91-E, aunque tiene más aspecto de tormenta tropical que KRISTY.
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KRISTY...LOCATED ABOUT 310 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN

Bueno, pues ya está aquí. Tenemos nueva Depresión Tropical en el EPAC. Los modelos y por ende el NHC, le da poca "chicha" con tan solo 45 Kts. en su momento más álgido. LANE está a la vuelta de la esquina.

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 151449
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...
...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 123.5W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC HAS BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9
KM/H...BUT A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Bueno, pues ya está aquí. Renombrado el sistema a 12ELANE.35kts-1003mb-130N-1235W. Viendo las imágenes del SAT, no se como catalogarlo.

Aumenta su fuerza y ahora la Navy prevee que llegue a Huracán, en menos de 24 horas.
De momento 12ELANE.50kts-1001mb-132N-1242W
Saludos.

LANE va subiendo peldaño a peldaño de forma lenta pero constante. Ya alcanza los 55 Kts-999 Mb.
EDITO: 12ELANE.60kts-995mb-147N-1256W

Lane es huracan categoria 1, al alcanzar 65 kt


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 170844
TCDEP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
200 AM PDT MON SEP 17 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LANE HAS EVOLVED INTO A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE CENTER FULLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE MASS. MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO INCREASED IN
ORGANIZATION SINCE LATE YESTERDAY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED
TO A CONSENSUS 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. ON THE BASIS OF THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 65 KT. LANE IS
APPROACHING A SHARP SST GRADIENT AND SHOULD BE OVER SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER WATER WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHICH LIMITS THE TIME AVAILABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE COLDER WATERS AND A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BY 36 HOURS SHOULD HASTEN
WEAKENING...AND LANE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT
72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH FSSE/LGEM MODEL OUTPUT.

RECENT CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE HEADING HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT
TO THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/08.  LANE
SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
INTO A WEAKNESS ALONG 130W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48
HOURS...THE TRACK SHOULD BEND SHARPLY TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST AS LANE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW.  BASED LARGELY ON THE MORE POLEWARD INITIAL MOTION...THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST...BUT LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TO THE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 15.9N 126.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 17.0N 126.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 18.6N 127.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 20.0N 128.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 20.7N 130.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 20.9N 132.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/0600Z 20.0N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Sube a 70 Kts. pero su aspecto deja mucho que desear, porque parece que le han cortado la parte W de la convección con una cizalla. Y es que viendo el "muro" de aire seco que tiene delante, pues......

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 191442
TCDEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
800 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2012

LANE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS
NOW...AND IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW. BASED ON A 19/0546 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS...WHICH CAUGHT THE WEST
SIDE OF THE INNER-CORE CIRCULATION TO WITHIN 25 N MI OF THE
CENTER...SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND DISSIPATE ENTIRELY IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH AN EXTENSIVE FIELD
OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND REMAINS OVER SUB-22C SSTS.

THE REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO TURN TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 280/5. THE VERTICALLY SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC TRACK GUIDANCE.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 20.9N 131.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  20/0000Z 21.0N 132.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  20/1200Z 20.9N 134.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/0000Z 20.8N 135.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART