Huracán MIRIAM Categoría 3 (13.E - Pacífico Este)

Nueva depresión tropical por el E.PAC y que según las provisiones oficiales, podrá llegar a la categoría de huracán en las próximas jornadas. Tampoco se prevé mucho más allá de un huracán categoría 1, pues el aire seco (normal en esta zona), acabará por eliminarlo.



3ETHIRTEEN.30kts-1005mb-136N-1072W

20120922   0545    13.1   107.2     T2.0/2.0



...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 220833
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE
CONVECTION IS RAGGED NEAR THE CENTER...BUT THERE ARE BANDING
FEATURES DEVELOPING IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR
INDICATING THAT THE SHEAR IS LOW. IN FACT...SHIPS MODEL MAINTAINS
VERY LOW SHEAR THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30
KNOTS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS. DUE TO THE LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE WARM OCEAN...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CIRCULATION WILL BE NEARING
COOL WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER IS
STILL IN FORMATIVE STAGE. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 6
KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...AN EASTWARD
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL ERODE THE RIDGE...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
MORE THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE HWRF/GFDL PAIR...TURN THE CYCLONE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS RECURVE THE CYCLONE EAST OF 118 DEGREES WEST.     


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 13.7N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 14.0N 108.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 14.5N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 15.5N 111.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 16.3N 112.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 18.0N 115.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 19.5N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 21.0N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

Tenemos a una nueva amiga entre nosotros 

..TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM...

13EMIRIAM.55kts-998mb-154N-1092W

20120923   1200    15.3   109.2     T3.5/3.5       13E  MIRIAM



Se intensifica y todo parece indicar que acabara estampada contra Baja California, pero ya muy debilitada... si es que finalmente lo consigue.

Pues sí que se intensifica. Y está a puntito de caramelo para la Cat.1 con esos 60 Kts.

Tal como se esperaba, tenemos nuevo Huracán en el EPAC. 13EMIRIAM.75kts-983mb-165N-1109W. Veremos el tiempo que dura, pues el aire seco y la subida de latitud, a zona de aguas más frescas no le da mucha cancha de juego.

Miriam ya es huracan categoria 2 con 90 kt.

Destaco en negrita lo más interesante.


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 240847
TCDEP3

HURRICANE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012
200 AM PDT MON SEP 24 2012

MIRIAM HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN. A SMALL 10 N MI DIAMETER
COULD-FILLED EYE IS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A COLD
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT HAS BECOME MORE CIRCULAR OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS
T5.0/90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ESTIMATE IS
T5.6/105 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 90 KT...WHICH COULD BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 305/11 KT. MIRIAM IS BASICALLY ON
TRACK...SO THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
TO THE EAST OF AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE
TO MIRIAM FORECAST TO BE A DEEPER AND MORE ROBUST CYCLONE SIMILAR
TO WHAT THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE INDICATING. THE UKMET MODEL
WAS COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED SINCE IT WAS WAS POORLY INITIALIZED AND
IS ONLY FORECASTING A VERY WEAK AND SHALLOW CYCLONE THAT DISSIPATES
AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWEST AND WESTWARD WITH TIME...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN A DEGRADATION OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCE. A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND CREATE A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS. THIS CHANGING FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MIRIAM NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS...AND THEN
RECURVE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA
ON DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT WEST BIAS OF THE UKMET...
GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT
SLOWER THAN A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF
FORECAST TRACKS.

GIVEN THE SMALL-DIAMETER EYE AND LOW SHEAR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO...ADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE
SEEMS HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIRIAM COULD EVEN REACH
CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY...BUT THE RATHER SMALL EYE COULD NEGATE THAT
POSSIBILITY DUE TO A PROBABLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE SOMETIME
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 36 HOURS AND BEYOND...MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE
WEAKENING TREND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS FAST AS INDICATED IN
PREVIOUS ADVISORIES NOW THAT MIRIAM IS FORECAST TO BE FARTHER EAST
AND...THEREFORE...OVER WARMER SSTS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN FOLLOWS
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 17.3N 112.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 18.0N 113.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
24H  25/0600Z 18.8N 114.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 19.6N 114.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 20.4N 115.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 22.2N 115.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 24.0N 115.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 25.5N 114.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Alcanzando ya los 100 Kts. y con un RI como una casa. OJO muy pequeño y lo más importante, con STEWART de guardia, que en su último parte le da la posibilidad de alcanzar rápidamente la Cat. 4.- Y después derechito a las costas de Baja California Sur.
13EMIRIAM.100kts-962mb-175N-1125W

No sé cuánto mide el ojo, pero desde luego es de los más pequeños que he visto...

En las imágenes de microondas, se ven varios anillos, ninguno de ellos homogéneo, pero bastante marcados, protegiendo bien el centro. Tiene toda la pinta de continuar esa intensificación durante todo el día, como bien habéis indicado.

Probablemente el sistema esté muy debilitado cuando llegue a las costas de California, pero hay papeletas de que consiga superar esa zona de aguas más frías sin disiparse si sigue intensificándose y ganando inercia.

Pinhole más RI 

Dudo que llegue vivo a la Baja California. La lógica dice que en 48 sea historia (estabilidad y aire seco de las latitudes proximas a la Baja California, más sus aguas frias)

 

105 KT Y por lo tanto...

...MIRIAM BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...

Así luce a las 23:31h