Huracán NADINE Categoría 1 (14L CV-MDR-Azores- Atlántico Nortel)

Ya, ya... ya lo sé.

Si lo que digo es que mirando el ftp, te vuelven loco, renumeran, lo echan para atrás, hoy hacen lo mismo y mira, de hace nada:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al142012.invest
FSTDA

AL, 14, 2012091112,   , BEST,   0, 160N,  426W,  30, 1006, TD

Lo que digo es que teniendo motivos se desdicen y redicen y te vuelven loco.

Está hecho, es DT... a ver la oficialidad.

Cita de: Parungo en Lunes 10 Septiembre 2012 22:31:29 pm

Renumer al14L a al91L, significa que no lo tienen claro por:

- No van a tener tres seguimientos activos, por mucho que esté bien organizada.

Leslie ya es oficialmente post-tropical por el NHC.

Previsibles no son...

000
WTNT34 KNHC 111445
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

CORRECTED FOR MISSING REFERENCE LOCATION

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
BUT NOT A THREAT TO LAND...

000
WTNT44 KNHC 111439
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN
TO T2.5 FROM TAFB AND T2.0 FROM SAB...SUPPORTING THE DESIGNATION OF
THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD...OR 275/9 KT.  THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD BE TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON AS IT
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AFRICA WESTWARD TO 50W.  THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE BEING ERODED BY A
LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OF THE
AZORES...AND THE DEPRESSION SHOULD RESPOND BY TURNING NORTHWARD BY
DAY 4 AND NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT UNTIL ABOUT 72 HOURS WHEN THE ECMWF MODEL BEGINS TO LAG
BEHIND THE OTHER MODELS...BUT THIS IS COMPENSATED FOR IN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS BY THE FASTER GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST INDICATES A TRACK LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER SCENARIO...
AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BORDERED BY DRY
SAHARAN AIR TO ITS NORTH AND WEST...BUT THE CYCLONE IS ALSO DRAWING
IN MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH.  SINCE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER IS SCANT...IT MIGHT TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT CAN MIX OUT SOME OF THE DRY AIR.  SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO...AND STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST UP TO THAT TIME.  STRENGTHENING
COULD BE ARRESTED IN 4-5 DAYS WHEN THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
WESTERLY SHEAR.  THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY
MODELS AT THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE SHIPS
AND LGEM MODELS BEING 20-25 KT DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER.  SINCE
THE LGEM MODEL...WHICH IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO...IS DESIGNED TO
BETTER HANDLE CHANGES IN THE SHEAR AT THE LONGER FORECAST TIMES...
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BE WEAKER THAN INDICATED IN
THE FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 16.3N  43.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 17.0N  44.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 18.3N  46.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 19.8N  49.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 21.4N  51.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 25.0N  54.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  15/1200Z 28.5N  53.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 30.5N  51.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

No me había percatado de su tamaño desde más arriba... interesante; si de verdad baja la cizalladura, mañana debe subir unos cuantos nudos hasta TT.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 112034
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 PM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 43.8W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.
A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Pues de la mano de STEWART ya tenemos a NADINE, como no podía ser de otra manera:
000
WTCA44 TJSJ 120250
TCPSP4

BOLETIN
ADVERTENCIA SOBRE TORMENTA TROPICAL NADINE NUMERO   3
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL142012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1100 PM AST MARTES 11 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2012

...LA DEPRESION nº 14 SE FORTALECE HASTA CONVERTIRSE EN LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
NADINE, EN LAS AGUAS ABIERTAS DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL...


RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMACION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...17.8 NORTE 45.2 OESTE
CERCA DE 1080 MILLAS...1735 KM AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 300 GRADOS A 15 MPH...24 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1004 MB...29.65 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
NO HAY VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.


DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 11:00 PM CDT...0300 UTC...EL CENTRO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
NADINE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.8 NORTE...LONGITUD
45.2 OESTE. NADINE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA
DE 15 MPH...24 KM/H. SE ESPERA QUE NADINE TOME NUEVAMENTE UN
MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOROESTE PARA EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA...Y
CONTINUE ESE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS
48 HORAS...Y NADINE PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN PARA EL JUEVES.

LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MB...29.65 PULGADAS.

PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
NINGUNO.


PROXIMAS ADVERTENCIAS
---------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 AM AST.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR STEWART

Algunas de las trayectorias e intensidades previstas por los modelos, cortesía de WUNDERGROUND 
Tal como se ve, algunos Modelos, se la tienen jurada a las Azores.

 

GFs. Nadine por el sur de las Azores para impactar contra la peninsula entrando por el Golfo de Cádiz. Salida calcada a la del europeo que puse en la primera página y debajo de este mensaje.



El europeo 

GFs. Nadine por el sur de las Azores para impactar contra la peninsula entrando por el Golfo de Cádiz. Salida calcada a la del europeo que puse en la primera página y debajo de este mensaje.

Eso mismo iba a colgar....

Europeo a 228 horas

Ni en mis mejores sueños....oh Nadine, mi amada, ven a mis brazos 

UP TO 40 kt 1001 mb. (y dicen los del NHC que son conservadores que puede tener 45kt) Nadine dicen que mañana ya es huracán. Yo pienso que lo será hoy o por poco.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 120843
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 AM AST WED SEP 12 2012

...NADINE STRENGTHENS MORE WHILE IT REMAINS FAR FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 46.6W
ABOUT 995 MI...1605 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H.  A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NADINE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Según Dvorak

                   
                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  12 SEP 2012    Time :   081500 UTC
      Lat :   18:31:15 N     Lon :   46:26:42 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.4 / 995.4mb/ 53.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.4     3.7     3.9

 Center Temp : -67.1C    Cloud Region Temp : -63.3C

 Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC     
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   40km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1012mb

 Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.0 degrees

****************************************************

Es posible que tenga que luchar con algo de cizalladura en las próximas horas, pero por lo demás, su intensificación promete y su estructura parece bastante sólida para estar en un estado de desarrollo tan temprano.

Su desplazamiento es algo rápido, según NHC lleva una velocidad de 15kt hacia el oeste-noroeste.