Otro más para el EPAC.



1. A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this
disturbance during the next several days while it moves slowly
northward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

Bueno, pues aquí tenemos a la segunda en liza, correspondiente a la misma elongada vaguada tropical que tiene a DOLLY en campeche (GOM), pero ésta en la zona Pacífica mejicana. Y cuidado que puede pasar de simple Invest a Tormenta tropical en un abrir y cerrar de ojos, pues ya cuenta con 35 kts-1004 mb y código ROJO. Lanzada la alerta tropical por parte de la Navy y un aviso especial por el NHC:

Citar
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system southwest of Mexico.

1. Updated:  Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low
pressure system located about 300 miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, is producing a small area of gale-force winds.  Although the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has not yet acquired
sufficient organization or persistence for the low to be considered
a tropical cyclone, only a slight increase in organization would
lead to the development of a tropical storm, and advisories could be
initiated later today.  This system is expected to move slowly
northward and then northwestward near the southwestern coast of
Mexico and the extreme southern Baja California peninsula during the
next few days, and interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of the disturbance.  Locally heavy rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Berg

Poco ha tardado el RECON en encontrar esos vientos, aunque el ASCAT es claro. Casi de forma directa, ha pasado a ser nombrada y ya tenemos aquí a NORBERT. Su trayectoria tan paralela a la costa, puede traer alguna que otra sorpresa, aunque el NHC no le de mucho chance.

Citar...NORBERT FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H.  THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT AND THEN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD BY TOMORROW.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NORBERT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

FORECASTER BLAKE

Ojo que se va de madre.

55kts-995mb



El aspecto es de un huracán. Posibilidad de un eventual RI.

In fact, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility, with the SHIPS-RI
showing about a 1-in-3 chance of Norbert becoming 30 kt stronger in
the next 24 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 19.6N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  04/0000Z 20.1N 109.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  04/1200Z 20.9N 110.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  05/0000Z 21.8N 111.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  05/1200Z 22.6N 111.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  06/1200Z 24.4N 113.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  07/1200Z 25.6N 116.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 27.0N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Es que viendo las imágenes y las condiciones tan buenas en que se está moviendo...........Y sobre todo después de upgradear a "engendros" que no tenían ni aspecto de Depresión. Para mí que ya es como mínimo Categoría 1 y es que ADT:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 980.6mb/ 69.8kt

Un vistazo a sus "entrañas" en la imagen de Sat a 85 gHz. Sube de forma "oficial" a 60 kts, pero la última actualización de ADT se dispara:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 978.8mb/ 72.2kt

Ya tenemos huracán.

70kts-982mb



Pico de 85 nudos camino de Baja California

NORBERT al borde de la Categoría 2 con 80 kts - 970 mb.

Norbert cerca de convertirse en Major

95kts-961mb



En el próximo parte rondará la Categoría 4 casi seguro con unos 105-110kts.

Sube a Categoría 3 con 105kts-957mb y cuidado, porque al paso que va, puede alcanzar la Categoría 4 a media tarde. Menuda le está dando a Baja California.

Norbert cerca de convertirse en historia tropical.

Norbert has been producing little or no deep convection over the
past several hours.  Unless new thunderstorm activity develops in
the circulation, Norbert will likely be downgraded to a
post-tropical cyclone soon.

Mejores momentos de Norbert como Major.