El Atlántico nos sorprende otra vez. Y es que la baja que se ha descolgado al oeste de la Península Ibérica, justo sobre las islas Azores, ha desarrollado convección y un núcleo cálido relativamente profundo y estable que está manteniendo su intensidad. Actualmente el NHC le otorga 40kt - 990hPa


Se irá desplazando al este y posteriormente al norte, hasta que en unos días se una a otra baja atlántica, extratropicalizándose en el proceso.


Saludos

A tropical cyclone has formed within a larger extratropical cyclone
in the northeastern Atlantic

Tormenta Tropical ectópica... 

Curioso, 2 ciclones tropicales en Azores dos veces en la misma temporada...

Apunto de convertirse en Huracán 

60kts-983mb

Le falta el canto de un duro...

the intensity has been increased to 60 kt,
which could be conservative due to the the cyclone's relatively fast
forward speed.

Pues tiene buena pinta y a la altura de Galicia ya

De locos, pues como afirmaban, finalmente PABLO es Huracán.

CitarHurricane Pablo Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 ...PABLO BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.8N 18.3W ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM NE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

Saludos

Enviado desde mi HUAWEI CUN-L21 mediante Tapatalk

Este tipo de sistemas tiene un patrón claro...: aislamiento en entorno desfavorable cuyo núcleo cálido se genera por la inestabilidad existente


...PABLO BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES QUICKLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...

 

Copio y pego la discusión del NHC.

CitarHurricane Pablo Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 Satellite imagery shows that Pablo has continued to maintain a small eye, and that the eyewall cloud tops have recently cooled. In addition, early morning microwave satellite intensity estimates, as well as the CIMSS satellite consensus, indicate that Pablo has become a hurricane. The initial intensity is increased to 65 kt as a blend between the subjective estimate from TAFB and the higher SATCON estimate, and it is possible this is a little conservative. The intensification has occurred while Pablo is over sea surface temperatures of 19-20C, and it is likely that cold mid- to upper-level air temperatures have allowed the cyclone to maintain deep convection and strengthen over water temperatures where tropical cyclones normally weaken. The initial motion is now 030/28. The cyclone is expected to turn northward and slow its forward motion as it approaches a frontal system to the north during the next 12-24 h, and this will be followed by a turn toward the northwest as a large mid-latitude low over the north central Atlantic becomes the main steering mechanism. The track guidance has again shifted a little to the east, and the new forecast track is also nudged a little to the east of the previous track. Like the previous forecast, it lies close to the various consensus models. Pablo should encounter even colder water along the forecast track, and global model guidance suggests it should merge with the frontal system between 12-24 h. This combination should cause Pablo to weaken and become an extratropical cyclone. Thereafter, the system should be absorbed by the much larger low to its west between 48-72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 42.8N 18.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 45.3N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 46.9N 17.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 29/0000Z 47.9N 18.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 29/1200Z 49.5N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

A destacar que PABLO ha logrado ganar la categoría de huracán con SST  de 19-20°C, lo cual es de lo mas llamativo, lo que quiere decir que la atmósfera que lo rodea es muy inestable, lo suficiente como para mantener convección con esas temperaturas sin que hayan gradientes horizontales.

Una imagen antes de caer la noche de como luces Pablo desde acá.

Saludos

Enviado desde mi HUAWEI CUN-L21 mediante Tapatalk

A destacar también el tamaño..., como ya ocurriera con VINCE.

¿Se le puede cambiar el nombre por "Pablito" ?. Entiendo que pronto pasará a tormenta tropical.

 

70kts-977mb