Huracán SHARY Categoría 1 (20L Bermuda-Atlántico Norte)

Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs (3 days) is forecast to be within 47 nm to the SE, 7 pm Fri, Oct 29, 2010.

El centro de Shary pasará a unos 70km al SE de la isla de Bermuda, es decir, pegado

De momento en el radar esto es lo que se observa.

Aquí tenemos a Shary siendo shearada (cizallada)





el parte intermedio sin novedad.

000
WTNT35 KNHC 291143
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SHARY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
800 AM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...SHARY EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA LATER TODAY...

Shary tiene un aspecto bastante extraño.



Y se puede apreciar el frente en la Costa Este al que se ''enganchará'' mañana.

Shary posee 50kts-1000mb

RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO PROVIDE A
BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF SHARY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.




Ha sido el amigo Stewart, esto no sería propio de Brown, Avila y cia.

Shary tiene un aspecto bastante extraño.

Y se puede apreciar el frente en la Costa Este al que se ''enganchará'' mañana.

El aspecto "extraño" de SHARY se llama subtropical  cizallado además.

Saludos 

Sip

Como siga asi, van a tener que cambiar la denominación 

Ojito que SHARY no ha dicho su última palabra todavía. 55 Kts - 993 mb. 
Saludos.

Ojito que SHARY no ha dicho su última palabra todavía.

En Miami están flipando

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SHARY MEASURED
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 993 MB...MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68
KT...AND A MAXIMUM SFMR ESTIMATED WIND OF 53 KT.  A SUBSEQUENT
ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1442 UTC INDICATED BELIEVABLE WINDS IN THE 45-50
KT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

Posteriormente comentan esto.

THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE VERY LITTLE TIME TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS
STRONG SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH...SHOULD IMPACT THE CYCLONE SOON. IN ADDITION...SHARY IS
CURRENTLY OVER ABOUT 25 C WATERS AND WILL BE MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NONETHELESS...NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION...POSSIBLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC
ENHANCEMENTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS SHARY TRANSITIONING
TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BECOMING
ABSORBED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IN AGREEMENT
WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

Poco tiempo de posible intensificación,  hasta que los niveles de cizalladura asociadas a la vaguada de marras de la Costa Este lo absorba.

Señala el Dr. Stewart que es gracias a un ambiente baroclínico estable lo que está permitiendo la profundización de Shary.


INITIAL      29/2100Z 30.9N  65.0W    55 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 33.1N  62.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 36.8N  56.8W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     31/0600Z 41.3N  48.9W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

---

Me gusta esa convección que ha desarrollado en torno al centro, a ver si es posible.....

Shary es huracán categoria 1.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 300836
TCDAT5
HURRICANE SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
500 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

SHARY POSES A BIT OF A CONUNDRUM THIS MORNING.  THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW AND BECOME
MORE SYMMETRIC NEAR THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...TRMM PASSES FROM
OVERNIGHT INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE
37-GHZ CHANNEL. WHILE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN EARLIER
...THEY ARE FAR FROM SUPPORTING HURRICANE INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH
THESE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE CLEARLY NOT HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL.
THE DEEPENING OF CONVECTION AND THE EYE FEATURE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SUGGEST A FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF SHARY AND AT LEAST A NOMINAL
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FROM THE 60 KT OBSERVED FROM THE AIRCRAFT.
NORMALLY A 5-KT WIND ADJUSTMENT WOULD NOT REQUIRE THIS MUCH
DISCUSSION...BUT A CHANGE IN STATUS DOES COMPLICATE MATTERS. IT IS
HARD TO DISCOUNT THE LARGE CONVECTIVE INCREASE AND THE SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT ON MICROWAVE IMAGES SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED...THUS
THE INITIAL WINDS ARE NUDGED UPWARD TO 65 KT.  THIS IS A GOOD CASE
OF A SMALL HURRICANE THAT WAS VERY UNLIKELY TO BE OBSERVED BEFORE
THE RECENT ERA WHEN MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS AVAILABLE.

THE TRMM PASSES AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
SHARY HAS ACCELERATED CONSIDERABLY AND IS NOW SPEEDING
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 30 KT. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LATITUDE FLOW. A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHING SHARY IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE ABSORBING THE CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRANSITION...AND THE
NEW FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL
MOTION AND THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE. SHARY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
SOON DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS COOLER THAN
76F. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL WINDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/0900Z 33.6N  59.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 35.7N  54.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     31/0600Z 38.5N  48.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


   Tracking Info For Hurricane Shary    
        
 

 Time             Lat   Lon   Wind(mph)  Pressure  Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 GMT 10/29/10  27.3N 63.7W     40       1004     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/29/10  28.5N 65.0W     40       1004     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/29/10  29.6N 66.2W     40       1004     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 10/29/10  30.9N 65.0W     65        993     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/30/10  31.9N 63.4W     70        994     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/30/10  33.6N 59.4W     75        989     Category 1 Hurricane

Este es su aspecto actual.

Interesantísimo, Sagrajeño Me he quedado a cuadros cuando he actualizado la página del CNH y subido de rango a SHARY Pero lo más gracioso, es que se encuentra delante de una vaguada, y se supone que el ambiente no es nada bueno para que se haya intensificado. Los mecanismos que rigen a algunos ciclones tropicales es todo un misterio...

Me quedo con esto

THIS IS A GOOD CASE
OF A SMALL HURRICANE THAT WAS VERY UNLIKELY TO BE OBSERVED BEFORE
THE RECENT ERA WHEN MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS AVAILABLE.

Viene a decir que antes de que las imagenes microondas estuvieran disponibles, este SHARY no hubiera sido descubierto

Aun con esas, muy claro tiene que ser el eyewall en las imagenes que ellos disponen, porque la verdad, es una castaña de huracán. El visible ayudará mucho

Mmmm........en el cálculo de probabilidades le dan un máximo de 64 kts. a tan solo un Kt. de ser Huracán en el dia de hoy, ya que a partir de mañana Sábado por la noche, pronostican un rápido declive. No se, pero muy justo lo va a tener

Me autocito, porque vaya mesesito de Octubre que estamos teniendo. A punto de finalizar y lo va a hacer "a lo grande" porque ayer no dábamos ni un céntimo por esta intensificación de SHARY. De momento y tal como comenta Torre, las imágenes de microondas, no definen lo suficiente a SHARY, pero algo se intuye, aunque parezca un "chinchorro"