El JTWC ha lanzado alerta de formación tropical durante esta madrugada



A ver si a lo largo de la mañana logro conectarme al IMD, que seguramente catalogue a la perturbación como Depresión Profunda

[Cyclone Alert for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast]

Como presuponía, el IMD sigue a la perturbación, a la que cataloga como Depresión Profunda

BOB 05/2009/05                                                   Dated: 11. 12. 2009

Time of issue: 1130 hours IST

Sub: Cyclone Alert for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast : Yellow Message



                    The deep depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 11th December 2009 near lat. 7.00 N and long. 84.50 E, about 350 km east-southeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 650 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 800 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross Sri Lanka coast between lat. 8.50 N and 9.50 N by evening of tomorrow, the 12th December, 2009. Subsequently, it may emerge into Gulf of Mannar and cross Tamil Nadu coast by noon of 13th December 2009.


             Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry from tomorrow, the 12th December 2009 morning.  Subsequently, increase in rainfall activities with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over south coastal Tamilnadu from 12th December 2009 evening onwards.



           Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph are likely to commence along and off Tamilnadu and Puducherry coasts from tomorrow, the 12th December 2009 morning. Sea condition will be very rough to high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.



          Next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 11th December 2009


De adquirir nombre, le tocaría WARD

[35kt]

El JTWC lanza el primer aviso de Ciclón Tropical, 35kt.

- En la página del NRL ya aparece con 45kt y 989mb.

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z --- NEAR 9.1N 85.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

[alerta de formacion tropical45nudos-05B.WARD]

alerta de formacion tropical
45nudos-05B.WARD


SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (WARD) WARNING NR 002
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 9.9N 85.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 85.0E
---
FORECASTS:
24 HRS
055 KT,
36 HRS, VALID AT:
-055 KT,

tiene buena pinta en el satélite

trayectoria prevista


un saludo

segun la técnica DVORAK:




                 CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.4 / 985.4mb/ 53.0kt

a ver como termina...no vaya a haber sorpresas...

[50kt]

WARD sube hasta los 50kt según el JTWC, aunque en la página de la Marina se mantiene con 45kt, 989mb.

- Además en el aviso nº4 se comenta la perdida de convección sobre el LLCC, a pesar de las bandas que rodean el núcleo, debido a la cizalladura del Oeste... buen flujo hacia el polo por el momento. Tocará tierra en 48 horas y se disipará posteriormente.

- El IMD en su aviso nº8, coincide tanto en intensidad (45kt, igual que la Marina) como en pronóstico, sobre WARD, reseñando su perdida de organización.

asi es, ward mantiene 45 nudos segun el jtwc y el nrl.
mejor asi... que esa zona es bastante porbre, menos mal.


un saludo

[045 KT]

Actualización del JTWC, 0300UTC, 13/12.

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (WARD) WARNING NR 007   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z --- NEAR 9.1N 83.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT


- El NRL rebaja ligeramente la intensidad hasta los 35kt y 996mb.

[deep depression]

Se me pasó comentar el parte del IMD (Servicio Meteorológico Hindú), que sólo la nombra como Depresión Profunda; dejo el enlace.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.htm

BOB 05/2009/21      Dated:13.12.2009                                                                                         

Time of issue: 1430 hours IST

Sub:  Deep depression over the southwest Bay of Bengal.

The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal slightly moved southward and lay centred at 1130 hours IST of today, 13th December 2009 near lat. 9.00 N and long. 83.00 E, about 200 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 400 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 400 km east of Pamban. The system is likely to move in a westerly direction and cross north Sri Lanka near Lat. 9.00 N around early morning of tomorrow, the 14th December, 2009. Subsequently, it is  likely to move in a west-southwesterly direction, emerge into Gulf of Mannar and cross south Tamil Nadu coast between Kanyakumari and Pamban around early morning of 15th December, 2009.

sin cambios en el sistema


y mostrando sus ''verguenzas''(como diria torre)


segun dvorak 49 nudos, segun jtwc 35 nudos, y no se espera que se intensifique.

un saludo

[DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER]

Aviso final del JTWC sobre WARD, que comenta su desorganización y disipación sobre el océano al NE de Sri Lanka.

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (WARD) WARNING NR 012   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z --- NEAR 8.8N 81.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 81.3E


- El IMD comenta su tránsito sobre la Isla y su impacto en el Subcontinente, recalcando su debilitamiento, en todo caso.

The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved further southwestwards and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, 14th December 2009 over southwest Bay of Bengal near lat. 8.50 N and long. 81.50 E, close to Trincomalee (Sri Lanka),  about 300 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 250 km east-southeast of Pamban. The system is likely to move in a westerly direction and cross north Sri Lanka coast close to Trincomalee within a few hours. Subsequently, it is likely to move in a westerly direction, emerge into Gulf of Mannar and cross south Tamil Nadu coast between Kanyakumari and Pamban around afternoon of tomorrow, the 15th December, 2009. However the system shows sign of further weakening.