[EPAC]

Tenemos un nuevo invest en el EPAC

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EP, 96, 2010071118,   , BEST,   0, 120N,  925W,  20, 1008, LO,  34, NEQ

Pues de desarrollarse, toca Estelle.



A ver que dicen los dinámicos, por que GFS y CMC ven desarrollo, que por cierto, el NHC ya la tenía vigilada desde el atlántico, cuando le dió hace dos dias 0% de chance.

[NARANJA]

Sube al nivel NARANJA

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

[1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOWPRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OFTEHUANTEPEC...HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVELWINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THISSYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXTCOUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THISSYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.]

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.     ç

SHIPS y los globales desarrollan, es solo cuestión de tiempo

[40%]

40%, rozando el nivel rojo

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.   

Nada destacable en el sat. de momento....

[ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS]

Cada vez tiene mejor aspecto...



1. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.   

Pues sí que va teniendo mejor aspecto; las condiciones también son buenas para ver el siguiente sistema tropical del EPAC.....

[SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AROUNDA SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILESSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.]

Poco le falta para ser DT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AROUND
A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[TD]

EP, 06, 2010071418, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1067W, 30, 1006, TD

A ver el parte....

[AND THIS CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORTHE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO]

Pues eso, tenemos depresión


THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING 25-30 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR FOR
THE PAST 2 DAYS...AND THIS CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS
ERODED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY NOT BE SUSTAINED UNTIL THE SHEAR DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS. BUT BY THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING OVER COOLER WATER...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL STORM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/2100Z 14.9N 107.2W    30 KT
12HR VT     15/0600Z 15.3N 108.8W    30 KT
24HR VT     15/1800Z 15.8N 110.5W    30 KT
36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.2N 112.3W    35 KT
48HR VT     16/1800Z 16.6N 114.1W    40 KT
72HR VT     17/1800Z 17.2N 118.0W    35 KT
96HR VT     18/1800Z 17.6N 122.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



Estos primeros partes son la leche....

Trayectoria.



A ver si se organiza y podemos ver a Estelle en las próximas horas.