Le está bien empleado al NHC. Por tanto esperar algunas veces, le pasan estas cosas. La 07E ha entrado en combustión espontanea



Con una circulación conseguida, y sobre aguas cálidas, es esperable que recupere convección en poco tiempo. Pero denota que tanta memez del 80% y 90%, a veces, es contraproducente 

[¿07L?]

¿07L?


... alguno está frenopático y y en ocasiones ve fantasmas...

Pues en las últimas imágenes de sat. .....Previsiblemente será tormenta tropical aunque no parece que vaya a ir a más..... A ver qué da de sí!!!

[48HR VT 08/0600Z 18.7N 109.3W 55 KT]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 060843
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION
RE-FORMING NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION.  HOWEVER...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A
BLEND OF SATELLITE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0600
UTC OF 25 KT AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN ASCAT PASS AT 0436
UTC THAT SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 25-30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 290/9. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING
THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. BEYOND 72 HOURS
...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE CAUSED
BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. WHILE THIS PATTERN WOULD USUALLY FAVOR A
NORTHWARD TURN...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW BY THAT TIME
AS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD
IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE DEPRESSION IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...AND THE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...NONE OF
THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE THROUGH 72
HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS
AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0900Z 16.3N 103.1W    30 KT
12HR VT     06/1800Z 16.7N 104.5W    40 KT
24HR VT     07/0600Z 17.3N 106.2W    50 KT
36HR VT     07/1800Z 18.0N 107.8W    55 KT
48HR VT     08/0600Z 18.7N 109.3W    55 KT
72HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N 111.5W    50 KT
96HR VT     10/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     11/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[¿07L?]

¿07L?
... alguno está frenopático y y en ocasiones ve fantasmas...

La emoción del momento y además eran las 5 de la madrugada....disculpa!!


Por cierto....creo que este sistema fue esta onda tropical....
Fue la que tuvo nivel amarillo en el Caribe hará ya 4-5 días

Nuevo parte del Nhc, aun sigue siendo Depresión tropical 

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 061450
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010

THERE HAS BEEN INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS WITH MORE PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES ON THE SOUTH AND
EAST SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION.  WITHOUT ANY RECENT MICROWAVE DATA TO
CONFIRM THE INITIAL POSITION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT
30 KT...A BLEND OF THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB.  HOWEVER
THIS SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM...ESPECIALLY IF THE
CENTER IS FARTHER NORTH.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH LOW
SHEAR AND WARM WATER LIKELY.  IT IS A LITTLE PUZZLING WHY THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING GIVEN THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.  AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT SEE A REASON TO
CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MUCH...AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS THE SAME AS PREVIOUS...290/9...
ALTHOUGH THIS IS PRETTY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF MICROWAVE
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WEAK RIDGING OVER MEXICO
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHETHER THE CYCLONE WOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO A BREAK
IN THE RIDGE...OR CONTINUE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AT THAT TIME.
GENERALLY THE GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...WHILE THE
HWRF/GFDL AND THE BAMS GUIDANCE ARE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME...WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN 6
HOURS AGO. THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE
SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/1500Z 16.6N 104.0W    30 KT
12HR VT     07/0000Z 17.1N 105.3W    40 KT
24HR VT     07/1200Z 17.8N 107.1W    50 KT
36HR VT     08/0000Z 18.3N 108.5W    55 KT
48HR VT     08/1200Z 18.8N 109.8W    50 KT
72HR VT     09/1200Z 19.5N 111.5W    40 KT
96HR VT     10/1200Z 20.0N 113.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     11/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTELLE]

TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTELLE


EP, 07, 2010080618,   , BEST,   0, 170N, 1045W,  35, 1003, TS,

Por fiin!!

39 días han pasado desde Darby...
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/2100Z 17.2N 105.0W    35 KT
12HR VT     07/0600Z 17.7N 106.3W    45 KT
24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.2N 107.8W    55 KT
36HR VT     08/0600Z 18.6N 109.0W    55 KT
48HR VT     08/1800Z 19.0N 110.0W    50 KT
72HR VT     09/1800Z 19.5N 111.5W    40 KT
96HR VT     10/1800Z 19.5N 112.5W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     11/1800Z 19.5N 113.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

39 días han pasado desde Darby...

De la discusión del NHC

AFTER A RATHER LONG...PERHAPS UNPRECEDENTED...BREAK IN TROPICAL
STORM ACTIVITY IN THE HEART OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...
ESTELLE HAS FORMED

Pues para que veas, es que este parón de actividad no ha sido normal...

A ver si sale una de 85 GHz que abarque más %....por que aquí se intuye ''algo''



O al menos parece que se intuye....

[45, 1000, TS]

ESTELLE con 10 KT más de fuerza 

EP, 07, 2010080700,   , BEST,   0, 172N, 1058W,  45, 1000, TS,

El pronóstico del SHIPS es aclaratorio.....

SST en descenso y cizalladura en aumento.

*     ESTELLE  EP072010  08/07/10  06 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    45    46    47    49    50    50    49    45    41    36    32    27    23
V (KT) LAND       45    46    47    49    50    50    49    45    41    36    32    27    23
V (KT) LGE mod    45    47    48    48    48    47    44    41    37    33    29    26    22

SHEAR (KT)        10     6     7    11    10     9    13    13    14    19    18    20    13
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     1     0     0    -2    -2    -1     0    -2     4     9     3     5
SHEAR DIR         99    92    93    90    98   138   129   143   125   142   138   136   128
SST (C)         28.3  27.9  27.4  27.1  26.8  26.3  26.1  26.1  26.1  26.1  26.1  26.1  26.1