Su aspecto de última hora ya no recuerda a ese "bolón convectivo" de las pasadas horas. Cizalla de 10 Kt., aumentando a 20 Kt. al W y algo de aire seco. A ver si mejora esta noche.
Saludos.

Ha perdido mucha fuerza, si bien parece que ahora mismo esta comenzando a mejorar.

Sí compañero. Parece que hoy le toca meter el "turbo" a ella. Sube hasta el 90% y puede que esta noche tengamos nueva D.T. Mucho ojo a la O.T. que viene empujando por detrás.
Saludos.
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
1150 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

[IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...A TROPICALDEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVESGENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.]

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.




Animación

Nadie vió el europeo, verdad?





Ahora lo estampa en Florida, esa salida es la de ayer...

Esta el europeo enfuscado con este sistema....y como no se desarrolle pronto va a llevar razón y tenemos un revival de ''Bonnie'' a lo grande

Demasiado cerca de Earl para mi gusto....


Si se queda pegado a Earl no tiene nada que hacer, pero como Earl ''acelere la marcha'', ojito con la futurible Fiona....

[HOWEVER...AIRCRAFT DATAFROM A RESEARCH MISSION BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FORATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH...AS WELL AS SATELLITE DATA...SUGGEST THATTHIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN ASMALL AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE INORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD RESULTIN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM...AND ADVISORIES COULD BEINITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.]

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...AIRCRAFT DATA
FROM A RESEARCH MISSION BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH...AS WELL AS SATELLITE DATA...SUGGEST THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN A
SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER.  ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT
IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM...AND ADVISORIES COULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.

[35, 1007, LO]

AL, 97, 2010083018,   , BEST,   0, 142N,  477W,  35, 1007, LO

Demasiado cerca de Earl para mi gusto....

Si se queda pegado a Earl no tiene nada que hacer, pero como Earl ''acelere la marcha'', ojito con la futurible Fiona....

Humm juzgando por la imagen ya hay cierta interacción entre ambos sistemas, ¿Tendremos Fujiwara?

Saludos 

Nadie vió el europeo, verdad?



Ahora lo estampa en Florida, esa salida es la de ayer...

Esta el europeo enfuscado con este sistema....y como no se desarrolle pronto va a llevar razón y tenemos un revival de ''Bonnie'' a lo grande

En la salida de ahora 12Z lo mete en Carolina del Sur pero a tropecientas horas ya que lo pone a coger fuerzas en el Saco  de Charleston durante tres ó cuatro días.

Saludos 

Ni Jeff Masters lo tiene claro y plantea los dos escenarios:

- Que la intensificación de EARL genere la suficiente cizalladura en altura que anule a 97L y sustraiga su humedad.

- Que se mantengan lo suficientemente alejados y que 97L (FIONA) consiga pasar al norte de la Antillas Menores y se convierta en un peligro para Bahamas y la Costa Este...


97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands has a well-defined surface circulation and enough heavy thunderstorms to be classified as a tropical depression, if it can maintain that state for another six or so hours. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also that heavy thunderstorm activity has been slow to build. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Tuesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Tuesday. NHC is giving 97L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

97L is moving quickly to the west, at about 20 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which has slowed down to 14 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to 97L, and probably arrest the storm's development. The most likely scenario depicted in the computer models is for 97L to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy 97L through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario is that 97L will stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles islands as a tropical storm on Wednesday and Thursday, then bend northwestwards to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast. There is a very high degree of uncertainty on what may happen to 97L. History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.

[INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THEPROGRESS OF FIONA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR APORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 48.7W AT 30/2100Z]

Ya tenemos a fiona ...


INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FIONA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  48.7W AT 30/2100Z


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT


INITIAL      30/2100Z 14.4N  48.7W    35 KT
12HR VT     31/0600Z 14.9N  51.9W    35 KT
24HR VT     31/1800Z 15.8N  55.9W    40 KT
36HR VT     01/0600Z 17.2N  59.2W    45 KT
48HR VT     01/1800Z 19.3N  62.0W    45 KT
72HR VT     02/1800Z 24.0N  66.0W    40 KT
96HR VT     03/1800Z 27.5N  68.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     04/1800Z 29.0N  69.0W    40 KT