[SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURESYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE BECOME CONSIDERABLY BETTERORGANIZED THIS MORNING. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARECONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TOLAND COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION.THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD.REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OFSOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.]

Este invest ya tiene un 50 % de probabilidades de desarrollo aunque la interacción con tierra no le permitirá desarrollarse

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE BECOME CONSIDERABLY BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO
LAND COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

[EP, 95, 2010090318, , BEST, 0, 148N, 942W, 30, 1006, DB,]

El GFS lo desarrolla algo cuando salga al sur del golfo de méxico.


ATCF :

EP, 95, 2010090318,   , BEST,   0, 148N,  942W,  30, 1006, DB,

[EP, 95, 2010090318, , BEST, 0, 148N, 942W, 30, 1006, DB,]

El GFS lo desarrolla algo cuando salga al sur del golfo de méxico.


ATCF :

EP, 95, 2010090318,   , BEST,   0, 148N,  942W,  30, 1006, DB,

Eso iba a decirte....



Que cosas mas raras hace el NHC....

[...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...TROPICALSTORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...]

Ya es depresión tropical 

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...



SUMMARY OF 400 PM PDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 94.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN WESTWARD TO PUERTO
ANGEL.

[GFDL : Pico de intensidad de 67 KT , entrando a tierra con 57 KT]

Modelos dinámicos 18Z creo que son algo exagerados con la intensidad

GFDL : Pico de intensidad de 67 KT , entrando a tierra con 57 KT

HWRF : Entrando a tierra con 55 KT

Exagerados sí que son, aunque en la discursión del NHC, solo contemplan la disipación del sistema, una vez que entre en tierra. Para mí que ni lo uno ni lo otro y puede que el GFS, lleve razón en lo del posible desarrollo en el GOM, porque puede que conserve buena parte de su circulación debido a la gran entrada de humedad desde toda la costa Sur y explote de nuevo, al otro lado. Ya veremos si el Modelo lleva razón.
Saludos.

[SEVERAL LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICALCYCLONE FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXTDAY OR TWO. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WOULD COME FROM THEREMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E OR A BRAND NEWDEVELOPMENT.]

Pues ya entró a tierra y ya es baja remanente , a su paso por aquí dejo bastante lluvia y mucho viento en la madrugada ...

De la discusión mencionan esto :
...
SEVERAL LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WOULD COME FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E OR A BRAND NEW
DEVELOPMENT.

[SEVERAL LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICALCYCLONE FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXTDAY OR TWO. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WOULD COME FROM THEREMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E OR A BRAND NEWDEVELOPMENT.]

Pues ya entró a tierra y ya es baja remanente , a su paso por aquí dejo bastante lluvia y mucho viento en la madrugada ...

De la discusión mencionan esto :
...
SEVERAL LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WOULD COME FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E OR A BRAND NEW
DEVELOPMENT.

Sí Kike. Y ahora viene la pregunta del millón. Si el nuevo sistema se forma a partir de la baja remanente de la D.T. nº 11 ¿Continuaríamos aquí con el mismo tópic ó se tendría que abrir uno nuevo, debido al cambio de escenario?
Saludos.