Evolución prevista, sin grandes aglomeraciones de población de por medio:

[Up to 100 %]

Up to 100 %


1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE INITIATED
LATER THIS MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.


Pues eso entre las 4 y 5 de la tarde el Nhc confirmara que este sistema será una nueva depression tropical ( 12 L ).


Un saludo y a disfrutar del seguimiento compañeros.

[Up to 100 %]

Up to 100 %

Pues eso entre las 4 y 5 de la tarde el Nhc confirmara que este sistema será una nueva depression tropical ( 12 L ).

El óxido, el óxido... 

A ver, DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL 12L en la página ftp del NHC:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al982012_al122012.ren

AL, 12, 2012083012,   , BEST,   0, 138N,  426W,  30, 1007, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_RENUMBER_al982012_al122012.ren



BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al122012.invest

AL, 12, 2012083012,   , BEST,   0, 138N,  426W,  30, 1007, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al122012.invest

[Ávila]

Es una depresión tropical tremendamente organizada. La convección es intensa y cubre completamente el centro, no hay una cizalladura apreciable y el resto de variables son buenas, diría que muy pronto la conoceremos por Leslie, y mucho me temo que este sistemilla va a dar mucho que hablar, se está dando mucha prisa por desarrollarse en las últimas horas... Y las predicciones apuntan a un probable RI inminente. 

[TROPICAL STORM LESLIE]

Es una depresión tropical tremendamente organizada. La convección es intensa y cubre completamente el centro, no hay una cizalladura apreciable y el resto de variables son buenas, diría que muy pronto la conoceremos por Leslie, y mucho me temo que este sistemilla va a dar mucho que hablar, se está dando mucha prisa por desarrollarse en las últimas horas... Y las predicciones apuntan a un probable RI inminente. 

Ya lo es compañero, de hecho el nhc acaba de anunciar hace unos minutos.

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE


000
WTNT62 KNHC 301730
TCUAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
200 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  NO CHANGE TO
THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 

THIS IS THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE 12TH NAMED STORM ON
RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...ECLIPSED ONLY BY LUIS OF 1995.


SUMMARY OF 0200 PM...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 44.3W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[12LLESLIE.40kts-1004mb-142N-445W]

LESLIE aumenta de intensidad y las condiciones, tal como comenta Gdvictorm son bastante favorables para una rápida intensificación del sistema. Buenas explosiones convectivas se forman en torno al centro.
12LLESLIE.40kts-1004mb-142N-445W

LESLIE aumenta de intensidad y las condiciones, tal como comenta Gdvictorm son bastante favorables para una rápida intensificación del sistema. Buenas explosiones convectivas se forman en torno al centro.

Pues se tendría que dar mucha prisa Leslie, el aire seco va a comenzar de manera inminente a inyectarse en la circulación, por el resto de las condiciones ningún problema, SST a 29º-30º, buena vorticidad , cizalladura en valores relativamente bajos y marcando unos niveles bastantes elevados de OHC (mejoran a partir de las 36 horas), pero el aire seco que ha dejado atrás Kirk parece ser que también limitarán a Lesie unas 48 horas como mínimo, una vez se libre de el... le pasará lo mismo que a Kirk, se tendría que intensificar... por lo que Bermudas podría tener un serio problema.

[12LLESLIE.40kts-1004mb-142N-445W]

12LLESLIE.40kts-1004mb-142N-445W

AL, 12, 2012083018,   , BEST,   0, 142N,  445W,  40, 1004, TS  LESLIE

[COUPLE MODELS THAT SHOW IT NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE]

El outflow es bueno, Hard, pero sí es verdad que tiene aire seco por delante; según se tape la convección se podrá prevenir de sus efectos.

Y será Major?...

000
WTNT42 KNHC 302036
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
500 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

LESLIE HAS QUICKLY ORGANIZED TODAY WITH PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES
AND INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET TO 40 KT AS A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND MICROWAVE ESTIMATES.
GLOBAL MODELS ALL BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE STORM
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO BE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LESLIE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...AND
THERE ARE EVEN A COUPLE MODELS THAT SHOW IT NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE BELOW THE ROBUST LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  WHILE THE TIMING IS IMPOSSIBLE TO
PINPOINT...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF LESLIE BECAME STRONGER
THAN FORECAST IN THE THREE-TO-FIVE DAY PERIOD. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/18.  LESLIE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS
EXPECTED TO DIG BETWEEN 60W-70W...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO
MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN A FEW DAYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST THREE
DAYS...THEN SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS ON WHICH TROUGH MIGHT RECURVE
THE CYCLONE.  AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...SPEED DIFFERENCES BECOME
VERY IMPORTANT ON WHETHER LESLIE MOVES QUICKLY OUT TO SEA...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...OR GETS STUCK UNDER A RIDGE...AS FORECAST BY
THE ECMWF.  THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...STILL A BIT FASTER AND WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING RATHER LARGE...SO THE WIND
RADII FORECAST HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 14.4N  45.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  31/0600Z 15.3N  47.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  31/1800Z 16.5N  50.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  01/0600Z 17.7N  53.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  01/1800Z 19.0N  56.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  02/1800Z 22.0N  59.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  03/1800Z 26.0N  61.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 28.5N  60.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEENAFFECTING LESLIE IS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. THE STORM IS PRODUCINGGOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVELCENTER HAS MIGRATED FARTHER INTO THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY]

Leslie es un poco mas fuerte y esta bastante cerca de ser huracan.


000
WTNT42 KNHC 310849
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
500 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN
AFFECTING LESLIE IS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.  THE STORM IS PRODUCING
GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER HAS MIGRATED FARTHER INTO THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY.  DVORAK
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT.

LESLIE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AT 285/14 KT...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO NEARLY VANISH BY DAY 3 AS LESLIE BECOMES POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS AND WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES.  BECAUSE OF THE COLLAPSE IN THE STEERING FLOW...LESLIE
IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BUT SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY DAYS 4
AND 5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...
BUT THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT ON DAYS 4 AND
5.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS THEREFORE SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
BUT IT IS STILL EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA ON DAY 5.

THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AROUND LESLIE IS IMPROVING...AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORM SHOULD HAVE AN OUTFLOW PATTERN
BENEFICIAL FOR STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72
HOURS AND ACTUALLY ENDS UP A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.  THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON DAYS 4
AND 5...HOWEVER.  THE OPERATIONAL GFS MAINTAINS A GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN ON THOSE DAYS...WHILE THE ECMWF...UKMET...GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL SHOW AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR.  THE NHC FORECAST HEDGES ON THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE
MAJORITY OF THESE MODELS...AS WELL AS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE...AND INDICATES SOME POSSIBLE WEAKENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 15.2N  47.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  31/1800Z 16.1N  50.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  01/0600Z 17.4N  52.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  01/1800Z 18.6N  55.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  02/0600Z 19.9N  57.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  03/0600Z 23.0N  60.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  04/0600Z 25.5N  62.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 27.0N  62.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[12LLESLIE.55kts-999mb-164N-503W31/1745 UTC 16.9N 50.2W T3.0/3.5 LESLIE -- Atlantic]

Para el GFS virará hacia el noreste y quedaría unas 48 horas estacionario como un gigantesco sistema en medio del atlántico, el Europeo lo manda rumbo Terranova como un buen Huracán... antes se tendrá que librar del aire seco que sigue estando presente al norte del sistema.





Los topes más fríos que se han visto en lo que llevamos de temporada por la cuenca atlántica los produce ahora mismo Leslie, parece que viene juguetona 

12LLESLIE.55kts-999mb-164N-503W

31/1745 UTC   16.9N     50.2W       T3.0/3.5         LESLIE -- Atlantic 

Cizalladura en aumento para las próximas horas, para luego ir disminuyendo en las inmediaciones de Bermudas, y todo a punta a que llegaría muy vivo a Terranova.