[Meteosat Indian Ocean Data Coverage Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate West Indian Ocean]

Siguiente Onda Tropical camino de Reunión en los próximos días.

Meteosat Indian Ocean Data Coverage Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate West Indian Ocean



97SINVEST.25kts-1004mb-95S-859E

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3S
85.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 725 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF CONSOLIDATION WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE
WEST AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION. A RECENT 011425Z TRMM
SUPPORTS THE EAST-WEST ELONGATION AND THE SHEARING OF CONVECTION
FROM THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED
EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS CREATING MODERATE
LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10 TO 20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE ELONGATION OF THE LLCC
AND MODERATE VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

Depresión para MeteoFrance, y la marina lanza la alerta por formación ciclónica.



NOGAPS, CMC y GFS mantienen trayectoria oeste- suroeste, camino de Reunión.

Cancelada la alerta por formación ciclónica.   

Pues tampoco anda tan muerto...