[HIGH]

IMD cataloga este sistema como Depresión Tropical, aunque no se espera que se fortalezca mucho. Por su parte, JTWC lo cataloga como HIGH y ya ha lanzado la alerta de formación ciclónica.

THERE IS LARGE CONSENSUS AMONG THE NWP MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TRACK
AND INTENSIFICATION DURING NEXT 48 HRS. MAJORITY OF NWP MODELS SUGGEST NEAR
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT FOR SOMETIME AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT. NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED BY THE
MODELS.



Esperaremos el desarrollo de los acontecimientos

[92BINVEST.30kts-1000mb]

El sistema se mantiene sin cambios en su intensidad. Según el IMD se trata de la Depresión Tropical 02-B, por tanto, llega la oficialidad.

92BINVEST.30kts-1000mb



Su aspecto no es del todo bueno, pero como anticipo de la temporada puede servir. Recuerdo que El Niño no es muy beneficioso para los sistemas tropicales de esta zona.

No parece que vaya a ser mucho más que lo que es ahora mismo. Saludos.

Humm.........esa zona a donde se dirige, es bastante buena para que un buen "bicho" se estanque y de que hablar. Aunque la cizalladura está un poquillo "alta". Veremos.

WTIO21 PGTW 220730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210721Z MAY 14//
AMPN/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 210730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.6N 92.3E TO 20.0N 91.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.0N 92.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1N
91.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 92.1E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH
OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING AND FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION. A 220336Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SLOPPY STRUCTURE WITH SEVERAL ISOLATED
BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. AN OLDER 220021Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHT CONSOLIDATION
IN THE LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
WHILE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RAIN-FLAGGED AND
NOT CONSIDERED RELIABLE. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS BEING SLIGHTLY
OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS VARYING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A.