Está esta zona muy juguetona estos ultimos días, y tiene pinta de que pued ehaber algo de movimiento. GFS es bastante constante en ese aspecto, aunque el Europeo no es nada clarificador, pues no ve nada

De todas formas, me la juego



Y ojito que el plazo es corto.... vamos, para mañana mismo ya debería haber una Depresión por allí, según el GFS (del que me fío mas bien poco, pero es una corazonada...)



Saludos.

[MEDIO]

Como comenta Pepe, comienza la cuenta atrás para este sistema. El JTWC lo situa ya en nivel MEDIO de posibilidades. 95AINVEST.25kts-1002mb-125N-673E

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N
68.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 67.8E, APPROXIMATELY 478 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ELONGATED AND RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 081446Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ARABIAN SEA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.  DUE TO
A MORE CONSOLIDATED LLCC AND IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Con este aspecto tan aterrador... apuntito de caramelo, con la alerta de formación ciclónica que acaba de ser emitida.



A ver de lo que es capaz de hacer, las condiciones son muy buenas, tal vez algo de cizalladura.... pero el resto de factores jugarán a su favor.

Veremos.

[02ATWO.35kts-996mb-151N-688E.]

Pues ya tenemos al segundo en discordia, en la zona de seguimientos tropicales. Y cuidado porque podríamos estar delante de un buen "bicho", aunque el JTWC no le de más de 70 kts. en cuanto se relaje algo la cizalladura.
02ATWO.35kts-996mb-151N-688E.

REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 68.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 092236Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES INCREASED CONSOLIDATION IN THE LOW LEVELS AS THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME MORE TIGHTLY WRAPPED WHILE THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF
SYSTEM HAS REMAINED MARGINAL OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE IMAGERY AS
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW REMAIN AT 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 02A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE MID TO DEEP-LAYER REFLECTION OF A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR STEERING RIDGE LOCATED OVER INDIA. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO TURN WESTWARD IN THE NEXT DAY AS
ANOTHER STR BUILDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU
72, REACHING 70 KNOTS, AS EXTREMELY CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW CONTINUE. INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 72,
WILL START A SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH
OMAN. LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRANSLATIONAL TRACK
SPEED. BASED ON THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

Su nombre: NANAUK. Esta cuenca es mi favorita, por su excepcionalidad.



Si se relajara la cizalladura......

Si se relajara la cizalladura......

Pegaría un catapúm....

De momento sube a 50 nudos.... pero Dvorak se está yendo a 55-60 nudos.... Creo que está a puntito de caramelo porque este IR no deja lugar a dudas.

Este sistema tiene un potencial muy elevado... pero la cizalladura está impidiendo la formación de un auténtico y verdadero monstruo... estoy seguro.



Menos mal....

[CI# /Pressure/ Vmax4.0 / 974.6mb/ 65.0kt]

Pues nuestro amigo, según ADT ya ha alcanzado la categoría 1 S. S. Menudo "bicho" si la cizalladura no le estuviese haciendo la puñeta. Mejor así, que los ciclones en esa zona........
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 974.6mb/ 65.0kt

[CI# /Pressure/ Vmax4.4 / 967.8mb/ 74.6kt]

Ojo con NANAUK que Dvorak se sale de madre en las últimas estimaciones.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 967.8mb/ 74.6kt

Finalmente NANAUK no consiguió ser Huracán en la Categoría Saffir-Simpson, y a estas horas ya es historia tropical.

Imagen del visible en su mejor momento.