Y hasta donde las altas presiones lo guien.


AL, 92, 2016083000, , BEST, 0, 155N, 165W, 20, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

Por lo que cometna Jeff Masters hay bastante aire seco al Norte que dificultará su desarrollopese a que el resto de dondiciones son buenas. Irá moviéndose al W a la espera de librarse de ese aire y poder fortalecerse ya cerca de las Antillas.

Ahí sigue la 92L a punto de llegar a las Antillas más meridionales y entrar en el Caribe. De momento el NHC dice esto al respecto:

1. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
located about 250 miles east the Lesser Antilles.  This system
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers, and is
likely producing winds to near tropical storm force.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become less conducive for any significant
development of this disturbance while it moves westward at 15 to 20
mph through the Caribbean Sea this week.  Regardless of development,
this disturbance will produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds, possibly to tropical storm force, over portions of the
Lesser Antilles this afternoon through early Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

La verdad es que el aire seco circundante la ha estado afectando mucho estos días y ahora que parece que entra en una zona más húmeda y con mejores condiciones, la cizalladura empieza a aumentar. No es que sea imposible su desarrollo ni mucho menos, pero por ahora lo tiene un poco difícil, veremos a ver qué pasa en unos días.


Saludos.

No hay nada como los modelos sobrestimando un sistema.... de todas formas MNeteoFrance aporta estos datos para la Isla de Guadalupe.

Lo pongo en ingles porque se entiende:

CitarObserved data during the episode:

Total rainfall recorded over the duration of the episode, is since Sunday morning (48 hours):

- 232 mm  at la Citerne (St Claude near our Volcano La Soufrière) including 144 mm in 6 hours Monday 

- 163.2 mm in Ste-Rose (Viard) :eek: including 105.6 mm in 6 hours Monday.

- 153.5 mm in Ste-Rose (Clugny) :eek: including 104.5 mm in 6 hours Monday

- 129.7 mm at St. Claude :eek: (Matouba)

- 123.9 mm in Capesterre Belle-Eau   (Bois Debout) with 75.4 mm in 6 hours Monday

- 91.7 mm at Terre-de-Haut

- 71.5 mm Raizet.

The wettest areas during this episode:

- Trois-Rivières with totals estimated at more than 150 mm in 6 hours (radar estimated)

- Petit-Bourg, Lamentin and St Rose with accumulations estimated between 100 and 150 mm in 6 hours.

Moreover, wind gusts of 80 to 100 km / h were measured Sunday.

Website Météo France in the Antilles Guiana www.meteofrance.gp