Invest 95-E (SO México - Manzanillo)

Nueva liebre por el EPAC con chances de desarrollo.


1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 270 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HWRF y el GFDL lo elevan hasta Tormenta Tropical débil con 45-50 kts. GFS intuye.

Veremos

A ver si se nos organiza un poco mejor nuestro nuevo amigo. 

Le queda ''wrapear'' el centro, por lo demás el aspecto es prometedor.



1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Tiene pinta sí, tiene pinta....

El 95E sigue mejorando su aspecto y las previsiones cada vez le dan más posibilidades.



1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


95EINVEST.30kts-1005mb-177N-1071W

Ya tenemos el primer visible de la jornada 

El Invest se queda en bolas. NHC le baja al 60%



Pues vaya

El Invest se queda en bolas. NHC le baja al 60%

Y tanto, menudo cambio que ha dado en escasas 8 horas...

Lo vuelven a bajar...



1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO REMAINS DISORGANIZED.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE.

Fiasco total 

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUN 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 235 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
NNNN

95EINVEST.25kts-1005mb-178N-1079W



 

El centro meteorológico de EE.UU, deja de emitid sobre el sistema 95E.