Inicio seguimiento de la más que posible formación del que podría ser el primer Huracán "tipo" Cabo Verde de la temporada.
El GFS viene repetidamente en sus últimas salidas pronosticando la formación de un sistema de bajas presiones que saldría organizado por las costas africanas y que adquiriría rápidamente la categoría de Tormenta Tropical rumbo noroeste, por lo que llegaría a las islas occidentales de CV a priori rozando el estatus de Huracán.

Situación actual





GFS









La Onda Tropical a su salida al Atlántico se encontrará con una condiciones ambientales más que favorables.









Sistema de largo alcance... a ver por donde tira finalmente.

 

.... Y hasta el europeo ve desarrollo entorno a Cabo Verde en unos 4-5 días pero....

¿No es un poco temprano para iniciar seguimiento? 

Se nota que hay ganas que la temporada se active. 

Saludos 

Cita de: rayo_cruces en Martes 27 Agosto 2013 23:24:14 PM


.... Y hasta el europeo ve desarrollo entorno a Cabo Verde en unos 4-5 días pero....

¿No es un poco temprano para iniciar seguimiento? 

¿Pronto?... 

A tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Friday and track over the Cape Verde Islands is developed by the GFS and European models. This wave is expected to take a northwesterly track, and would likely not be able to make the long trek across the Atlantic to threaten North America or the Caribbean Islands.


Jeff Masters

Citar1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER WESTERN AFRICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM AFTER THE WAVE
MOVES OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ABOUT TO MOVE OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. THIS SYSTEM IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

Los grandes modelos ya no le dan mucho bombo a la Onda Tropical.

La 27.L sale al Atlántico con muy buena organización, y lo que viene por Mali no tiene nombre.

                                                                                             
                                                               
                                                                   
   

1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AFTER
THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMES A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...IT WILL LIKELY BRING CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 2
OR 3 DAYS.

Parece que hoy puede dar el salto. A poco que tenga organizada la circulación, puede ser nombrada.
96LINVEST.30kts-1008mb-141N-167W

Centro totalmente expuesto y convección desplazada al suroeste del LLCC, síntomas de la moderada cizalladura de componente este-noreste, pero que a medida que avance rumbo norte hacia CV debería de bajar considerablemente.



Aunque la cizalladura volvería a ser prohibitiva una vez salga de las islas... vamos que lo tiene bien justo.