INVEST 97-C (Sur de Hawaii - Pacífico Central)

Miércoles 22 Septiembre 2010 13:22:55 PM

Otro puñetero

1. The area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 500 miles south southeast of Hilo, Hawaii continues to show signs of improved organization. However, the coverage and intensity of the thunderstorms within this area has been fluctuating during the past 12 hours. Gradual development of this feature is possible as it continues moving slowly toward the west northwest at about 10 mph during the next couple of days. There is a high chance, 60 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Con TCFA:

Miércoles 22 Septiembre 2010 15:26:32 PM

Nombre no creo que obtenga, pero el nivel rojo no se lo quita nadie.

Miércoles 22 Septiembre 2010 22:49:10 PM

Cita de: Pepeavilenho en Miércoles 22 Septiembre 2010 15:26:32 PM
Nombre no creo que obtenga, pero el nivel rojo no se lo quita nadie.

1. The area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 410 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii, has changed little in organization early this morning. The coverage and intensity of the thunderstorms within this area have also been fluctuating during the past 12 hours. Development of this feature is possible as it continues moving slowly toward the west northwest at about 10 mph during the next couple of days. There is a medium chance, 50 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Pésimo aspecto.

Jueves 23 Septiembre 2010 00:19:48 AM

Ultimas imagenes en infrarrojo, crees que se disipara Pepe?

Jueves 23 Septiembre 2010 00:31:51 AM

Cita de: VK en Jueves 23 Septiembre 2010 00:19:48 AM
Ultimas imagenes en infrarrojo, crees que se disipara Pepe?

Tiene pinta de ello.
Sólo desarrollan GFDL, HWRF y CMC, UKMO intuye....

Esto es lo que dice el SHIPS sobre el desarrollo

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. -14.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -12. -12. -13. -13.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0.

Dirección de la cizalladura, Tª en altura(250hP), Theta, reducida vorticidad y GOES predictors.

CitarAn experimental version of SHIPS that included satellite observations was tested during the 2002 and 2003 seasons. New predictors included brightness temperature information from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) channel 4 (10.7 μm) imagery, and oceanic heat content (OHC) estimates inferred from satellite altimetry observations. The OHC estimates were only available for the Atlantic basin. The GOES data significantly improved the east Pacific forecasts by up to 7% at 12–72 h. The combination of GOES and satellite altimetry improved the Atlantic forecasts by up to 3.5% through 72 h for those storms west of 50°W.

Como me haces trabajar jo

Jueves 23 Septiembre 2010 02:13:27 AM

Vaya

Viernes 24 Septiembre 2010 01:29:35 AM

Quiere y no puede, puede y no quiere, o quien sabe que hara y en que se convertira "esto" tan insulso...

Viernes 24 Septiembre 2010 04:12:08 AM

Pues ya es imposible que se desarrolle

An area of disturbed weather is centered about 480 miles to the south of Honolulu Hawaii. A low level circulation is still evident in visible satellite imagery and a recent ascat pass also shows this low level circulation. Thunderstorms have been pulsing northeast and east of the center but remains disorganized as it moves toward the west at around 10 mph. Upper level winds will continue to hinder development of this system. There is a low chance, 10 percent, of this becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.