Invest 99-L (Atlántico Central)

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Invest 99-L (Atlántico Central)
« en: Domingo 20 Noviembre 2011 18:32:22 pm »
El bichillo que comentábamos en Seguimiento General.



1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONTINUED SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD
INTO A REGION OF MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



La intensificación del sistema está clara, veremos si su estructura mejora. ;)
Seguimiento Polos del Frío 2013-2014
Garganta del Villar (-17.6ºC) - Puerto El Pico (-11.4ºC)

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Re:Invest 99-L (Atlántico Central)
« Respuesta #1 en: Lunes 21 Noviembre 2011 01:19:27 am »
Down to 40%.

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CENTER.  ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FRONTAL IN
NATURE RATHER THAN TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL.  THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL...OR MORE LIKELY
SUBTROPICAL...CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

Lo que decíamos, la intensificación parece clara, el problema es la naturaleza propia del sistema y su estrucutura, que parece que será frontal.

Un saludo. ;)
Seguimiento Polos del Frío 2013-2014
Garganta del Villar (-17.6ºC) - Puerto El Pico (-11.4ºC)

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Re:Invest 99-L (Atlántico Central)
« Respuesta #2 en: Lunes 21 Noviembre 2011 13:07:57 pm »
Otra vuelta de tuerca.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THAT WINDS TO NEAR GALE-FORCE ARE OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS NOT WELL-
DEFINED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.



Tammy....... ::)
Seguimiento Polos del Frío 2013-2014
Garganta del Villar (-17.6ºC) - Puerto El Pico (-11.4ºC)

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Re:Invest 99-L (Atlántico Central)
« Respuesta #3 en: Lunes 21 Noviembre 2011 22:12:03 pm »
Su centro esta parcialmente expuesto , aunque sigue generando convección al NE del mismo.

99LINVEST.40kts-1005mb-285N-510W

 :crazy: 40 KT  :rcain:



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov

 :sonrisa:

Buen seguimiento Pepe  ;)

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Re:Invest 99-L (Atlántico Central)
« Respuesta #4 en: Martes 22 Noviembre 2011 17:44:47 pm »
Típico ciclón subtropical de caracteristica híbridas. Atento a su aislamiento y evolución.

Saludos
Nimbus   (Madrid)
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Re:Invest 99-L (Atlántico Central)
« Respuesta #5 en: Miércoles 23 Noviembre 2011 00:40:27 am »
Pues al final nada de nada. Según el NHC la naturaleza del sistema es 100% extra-tropical.

Tammy parece que tendrá que esperar a 2017, a menos que Stewart lo remedie. ;D
Seguimiento Polos del Frío 2013-2014
Garganta del Villar (-17.6ºC) - Puerto El Pico (-11.4ºC)