INVEST 99L (Cabo Verde)

AL, 99, 2010090312,   , BEST,   0, 143N,  186W,  25, 1007, DB

735
WHXX01 KWBC 031433
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1433 UTC FRI SEP 3 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20100903 1200 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100903  1200   100904  0000   100904  1200   100905  0000

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.3N  18.6W   15.2N  19.8W   15.9N  20.9W   16.7N  21.8W
BAMD    14.3N  18.6W   15.3N  19.9W   15.9N  21.3W   16.4N  22.4W
BAMM    14.3N  18.6W   15.5N  19.6W   16.2N  20.5W   17.0N  21.1W
LBAR    14.3N  18.6W   15.6N  19.9W   16.9N  21.4W   18.2N  23.0W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          42KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100905  1200   100906  1200   100907  1200   100908  1200

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.7N  22.6W   19.9N  24.7W   21.4N  28.2W   22.5N  31.9W
BAMD    17.1N  23.3W   19.2N  24.8W   21.8N  25.8W   23.9N  25.2W
BAMM    18.0N  21.6W   20.8N  22.7W   23.0N  24.2W   24.4N  24.9W
LBAR    19.2N  24.7W   21.8N  27.3W   24.9N  29.1W   27.8N  29.2W
SHIP        48KTS          56KTS          47KTS          36KTS
DSHP        48KTS          56KTS          47KTS          36KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.3N LONCUR =  18.6W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
LATM12 =  13.0N LONM12 =  17.9W DIRM12 = 331DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  11.0N LONM24 =  16.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

$$
NNNN

Hermine, is that you?





2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW ARE SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.  THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.


Nuuuuuse...

Hermine, is that you?

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW ARE SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.  THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.


Nuuuuuse...

Los modelos le dan unas trayectorias que la acercan mucho al SW Canario. Pero no se........... Prefiero que sea "esta" la que suba de latitud y no sea la que viene detrás, que se llamará "IGOR".
Me da un yuyu............  

A ver qué acaba haciendo, porque como suba de latitud menudo almacen de aire seco que tiene en el horizonte....

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

Por favor, cada cosa en su sitio...


 

Sres. Canarios, comiencen a evacuar las Islas, el NHC desactiva al sistema

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al992010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009042114
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

Es broma...

  30% 10% no se aclaran
3. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR.   THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

Ya no hacen seguimiento.