Perturbación Tropical 06 (98S - Índico SW)

Y tras el rastro de Bingiza....

Latitude: 14.9S
Longitude: 62.7E
Type: Tropical disturbance
Sea Pressure: 1000Hpa
Mean Max. Wind: 46Km/h

60H: 2011/02/18 06 UTC: 17.4S/62.1E, MAX WIND=035KT,MODERATE TROP. STORM




(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 61.6E
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 62.6E APPROXIMATELY 545 NM NORTHEAST
OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 151449Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF APPROXIMATELY 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH (28 DEGREES CELSIUS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW,THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR

Cizalladura moderada por el momento ,convección profunda la que muestra en la ultima imagen y una SST favorable.
Su trayectoria para Meteo France sería totalmente S.

Se ve mal ahora mismo, por culpa de la cizalladura tiene su centro expuesto Meteo france rebaja sus previsiones. 

Veremos que sucede

STS:
12H: 2011/02/16 12 UTC: 14.6S/63.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2011/02/17 00 UTC: 14.7S/62.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2011/02/17 12 UTC: 15.2S/63.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2011/02/18 00 UTC: 15.9S/63.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2011/02/18 12 UTC: 17.2S/63.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2011/02/19 00 UTC: 18.1S/64.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

Meteo France:

Last avalaible NWP models analyze this low and deepen it within the
next 72 hours. System is expected to remain quasi-stationary
within the next 24 hours, and to track slowly southward beyond.

Está garantizado que haya que estar pendiente de ella. De momento, esta baja tiene el centro expuesto

Por el momento pierde fuelle , esta en un entorno nada favorable. Tal vez cuando se dirija un poco más al S cambie la cosa.
El JTWC pasa de FAIR A POOR   

Visible



DEEPENING COULD BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY UP TO TAU72, WHEN THE CENTER COME CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ... BUT IN FACT NONE OF THE AVAIBLE DYNAMICAL AIDS DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS SYSTEM.

Meteo France deja de seguir al 98S



Adiós 98S ........ Algo de posibilidad le sigo viendo....

Edito la marina aumenta sus posibilidades ahora le otorga FAIR