Seguimiento general de sistemas tropicales. (Análisis, Modelos, Invests...)

Hay mucho aire seco frente a las costas africanas en la MDR. Todo el carrusel de ondas que tenemos no sirve para nada, porque nada más llegar al oceano se deshacen

No obstante, la calma atlántica suele ser preludio de un major. Paciencia 

Stewart strikes back!!! 



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN

Sí. Es el mismo "reflejo" de la O.T. que puso en seguimiento la semana pasada, ahora, más cerca de las islas de Sotavento. Stewart sigue siendo Stewart
Por lo demás, tal como comenta Torreoviedo, todas las Ondas se deshacen como azucarillos al adentrarse en el mar. A ver si ahora en la 2ª quincena de mes cambia la tendencia
Saludos.

Leyendo el perfil de Stewart, se entienden muchas cosas... no parece que ésto sea lo suyo, se le da mejor disparar la ametralladora del Hummer. 



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/stacy_returns.shtml

"Back at the National Hurricane Center, Stewart is rapidly catching up on some of the revised operational procedures used to distribute the routine hurricane products, as well as working with some of the new computer models. He is already back at work with his NHC colleagues and issuing tropical cyclone advisories."

Pues parece que no lo ha pillado muy bien... 

Nuevo parte del Nhc en el Atlántico, ahora mismo tenemos dos onda en seguimiento .




ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ALTHOUGH SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA...ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

2. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION IN THIS AREA AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml#contents

Ojito a esta Onda Tropical, que ha desarrollado un "boloncio" al Sur, que en las últimas horas se ha desarrollado y bastante sobre el mar
TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 21W S OF
20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-18N BETWEEN 14W-23W...AND SW OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 24W-30W.
Imagen del Meteosat a las 00:00 h

A ver si hay suerte con esa onda, aunque lo tiene complicado, tiene mucho SAL por delante.  Ningún modelo la desarrolla. 

Por fin tenemos un  Invest en el Atlántico.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007190852
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
    INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2010, DB, O, 2010071906, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972010
AL, 97, 2010071906,   , BEST,   0, 191N,  624W,  25,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,

¿Es el del sur de Jamaica?

Coño!
Acabo de abrir el topic, es que lo acabo de ver aquí.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=108610

No, es el de Antillas, mira las coordenadas FOX

Sagrajeño, abre tu el topic si quieres y que borren el mío

El europeo me tiene mosca....


No es el 97-L, es el sitema del caribe SO

GFS también lo ve....

Yo creo que el 98-L no va a tardar

En esta animación, podemos el Invest 97 l, y al So del Caribe la onda que esta siguiendo el Nhc.



Yo también creo que pronto vamos a tener el invest 98 l.