Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 08/0833 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTRE
[1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 18.6S 172.0E
AT 080600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.
CONVECTION HAS REDUCED NEAR THE CENTRE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVING IT WESTWARD
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
Lo dicho por
Torre , el ECMWF por el momento le da desarrollo...