Seguimiento general de sistemas tropicales. (Análisis, Modelos, Invests...)

Cita de: Hardstyle en Lunes 26 Septiembre 2011 23:07:39 pm

GFS a "300" horas ve algo por el Caribe 


Saludos

Se mantiene mas o menos la predicción, igual a tropecientas horas por  lo que el valor real es "0" pero para entretenerse e irle echando un vistazo de ves en cuando a ver como evoluciona la situación.

Saludos 

Como ya es costumbre por estos días el GFS sigue viendo huracán en el Caribe en el futuro ultralejano 

Saludos 

90WINVEST.20kts-1007mb-76N-1369E

Situado al SE del Tifón Nalgae, el único modelo que lo desarrolla , es el exagerado del CMC. Que lo desarrolla moderadamente con dirección Norte , dirección Okinawa y Japón.

Citar

  (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4N
136.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 135.5E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A 300026Z METOP-
A IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD BUT DEFINED LLCC WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE EAST QUADRANT INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
THE 300026Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE AND THE 300242Z PARTIAL OCEANSAT
IMAGE INDICATE AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER, CONVERGENT
FLOW (1520 KNOT WINDS) OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HOWEVER,
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP (LOCATED WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE) ONLY SHOW 10-15 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 1005.7
MB. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT)
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

 

CMC y Nogaps  lo desarrollan severamente ..... Y contra Filipinas nuevamente!!!! 

CPAC

Disturbio Tropical al sur de Hawaii 




For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. A compact center of low pressure located about 600 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii, moved west at 10 to 15 mph. Associated thunderstorm coverage remained inconsistent, and upper-level winds were only marginally conducive for further development. There is a low chance, near 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Otherwise, no tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday evening.

Sin posibilidades de desarrollo.

Los modelos intuyen un nuevo sistema tropical en el EPAC para los próximos días.

 

Unanimidad de los modelos al desarrollo del actual disturbio tropical situado en el EPAC.... 



1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND
IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

El resto de las cuentas por el momento , relativa tranquilidad. CMC , insiste en un desarrollo moderado de un disturbio tropical , dirección Taiwan. Y lo que comenté del Pacífico central (CPAC).... Muerte súbita.

 

Cuba

---

GFS a 300 horas   

 

Sube ligeramente y se sitúa al 20% de posibilidades.




 

92L Azores

CIMSS y la marina ya lo reflejan ....   







 

Ya cada modelo a su manera ve "movimiento" a su manera en el entorno del Caribe Occidental o la Florida, difieren los tiempos, intensidad y trayectorias pero lo cierto es que se "huele" algo. 

Saludos 

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.7S 57.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 740 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOGADISHU, SOMALIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATTELITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LACK OF DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE PERIPHERY. A 031611Z
SSMIS PASS SHOWS WEAK LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW

¿Dónde?..... NE de Madagascar. "Muy pegado al Ecuador"



Y lo que comenté en el día de ayer sobre el EPAC .....  Un posible Major camino de "Baja California", y otro estampándose contra las costas de México.

Posible efecto Fujiwhara a la vista entre estos dos "posibles" y futuros sistemas en el EPAC.

El WPAC , pierde fuelle.... 

Se va poniendo serio el tema para Cuba...

NOGAPS a 6 días.... 



CMC



 

Nueva zona de inestabilidad a seguimiento por el JTWC al E de Filipinas, de momento con bajas posibilidades....

Nueva zona de inestabilidad a seguimiento por el JTWC al E de Filipinas, de momento con bajas posibilidades....

El disturbio ese lleva ya más de una semana dando tumbos. 

Respecto a la posibilidad de desarrollo en el GOM



Recent runs by all of the computer forecast models predict that an area of low pressure will develop near Florida this weekend or early next week. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to Northeast Florida and the Georgia coast, and it is possible this storm will develop into a tropical or subtropical storm. The situation is similar to Subtropical Storm Four of October 4, 1974, according to the latest extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. That storm brought 10 - 14 inches of rain to the east coast of Florida and strong onshore winds of 30 - 40 mph that caused beach erosion and coastal flooding. The exact formation location of this weekend's storm is still in doubt, with the ECMWF and UKMET models predicting the storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico off the west coast of Florida, and the GFS model predicting formation over the Bahamas. We'll have to wait for future model runs before we can get a better handle on where and when this storm will most likely develop.

 

Dr. Jeff Masters