(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
42.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 43.0E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A DIFFLUENT REGION,
WITH LOW (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LLCC LIES
DIRECTLY BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING AMPLE DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. A 051523Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SIGNS OF
SOME SLIGHTLY FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY AGGRESSIVELY BETWEEN TAU 24
AND TAU 48. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION REMAIN FAVORABLE
AT APPROXIMATELY 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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