Posibilidad del primer sistema tropical de cierta envergadura que podría impactar de manera plena en Taiwan.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.0N
135.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 131.6E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE SHOWS IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH A 180125Z ASCAT PASS
INDICATING WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE LLCC. CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
WITH A RECENT 180124Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LLCC HELPING TO VENT
THE REGION TO THE SOUTHWEST IN A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. BASED ON FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS, OUTFLOW AND VWS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
GFS es el que le da más empenta, mientras el europeo no pasa de una simple depresión tropical.